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Any agent with a little financial savvy will realize that extremely long contracts need to factor in the cost of money significantly more today than last year or the year before.
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I’d be interested to know how those international deals really work. If everybody knows Elian Soto plans to sign with Soto, but there is no actual “contract” yet, why can’t other teams offer him deals? I know there is a corrupt system of child-abusing “buscones”, but that system is so filthy I’d love to see it ended.
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The other thing about the Juan Soto situation I think is interesting is that his 15 yr old brother Elian Soto was expected to sign with the Nats in January 2023 when he's eligible to. I wonder if that changes now?
SodoMojoDojo on
July 18, 2022 5:14 PM
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Someone is going to be happy with Brooks Lee falling to them. I assumed Orioles would draft him first.
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I’m enjoying watching the draft more than I enjoy most games. The talking heads are the worst (Harold Reynolds is the worst) but it’s fun to see how teams handle the draft.
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In this particular case it takes all the wind out of your "Sales". Pitcher injuries are always disappointing, they usually never miss days but weeks-months.
SodoMojoDojo on
July 17, 2022 7:16 PM
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And yes, I was just getting excited about Soto at Fenway. But damn it takes the wind out of your sails when ANOTHER SP gets hurt AGAIN!
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Chris Sale has thrown 47 innings since the end of 2019. 3 seasons since he signed a $145M extension, and the Sox have gotten 47 IP. Not quite a Strasburg level disaster, but a total disaster of a contract. I know the injuries aren’t Sale’s fault, but it doesn’t matter whose fault it is - the Sox lost terribly on that contract. I’d like to see the Sox sell hard this year - sell Xander, Devers, Kiké, Eovaldi (if he is ever healthy), Dalbec (if anyone wants him)…
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I’d like to see Red Sox offer Casas, Bello, Mayer and Yorke, and watch Soto tear Fenway apart.
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If the Mariners offered JRod, Kelenic and Marte… would the Nats take the deal?
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Kelenic has a huge contact problem. Noelvi seems like a defensively-limited, decent but not great bat. Brash is already converted to relief. I think they all have value, but it’s hard to see Seattle landing Soto without giving up JRod. I’d be surprised if either team agreed to a deal.
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I would love to see Seattle make a run at him. Some sort of package around Noelvi Marte, Jared Kelenic, and Matt Brash maybe?
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I would think it would likely go over $50 million, especially looking at the Bauer and Correa deals, AAV around $32-$35 on 3 year deals. Not sure what they’re saying the $/WAR figure is now in this market but if we assumed $9 million per WAR and have him as a 7 WAR player I could see it over $60 million. Especially if it was a fringe contender where 7 wins makes the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs altogether.
SodoMojoDojo on
July 17, 2022 12:54 PM
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I’d be interested to see what a player with Soto-level talent would earn if he gets to free agency and only signs 1 year contracts. He would always control his team, can always be on a contender, and would maximize AAV. What would a team pay if they didn’t need to worry about being on the hook for the decline years?
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Added my namesake to the trade block. Overwhelm me.
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It would be very interesting to see what a team would be willing to pay in trade value for 2+ years of age 23-25 Juan Soto. In a better lineup and possibly better home ballpark he could be an absolute beast, more so than he already is. It’s hard to believe the Nats won the WS in 2019 when you look at the state of the franchise right now.
SodoMojoDojo on
July 16, 2022 2:17 PM
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The interesting part to me is seeing how other teams value Soto in trade offers. The Nats could really kick their rebuild into overdrive if they play their cards right.
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Who knows what his reasons are? But I think he will wind up with considerably less than $440M. Details matter in a contract - maybe it was a 20 year offer, maybe there were decades of deferrals. But on the face of it, I don’t understand how an athlete turns down $440M.
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According to Rosenthal it was $440 million for 15 years and none of it was deferred. Pretty crazy stuff, it is hard to imagine another team topping that. Maybe could see some teams top that AAV ($29 million) in a shorter term deal with less overall money. Maybe something like $350-$400 million for 8-10 years with a chance to re-enter the market around ages 31-33? But I don’t see how you could turn down that kind of overall money.
SodoMojoDojo on
July 16, 2022 2:01 PM
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Maybe he just really doesn't want to stay in Washington? I'm all for a guy betting on himself, but yeah seems pretty wild to turn down what would've been the largest contract in baseball history.
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See Fernando Tatis for example
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I’ll never underestimate Soto’s ability as a hitter, but if he really rejected a $440M extension (even if it included deferred $), I really don’t think the Nats should wait 1 more minute to trade him. Nearly half a billion $ to a 23 year old is just more than I would imagine anyone else paying. Athletes can be so fragile sometimes - a ligament tear, a back injury, etc, and he could lose half his value.
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I think England is a beautiful country and London is one my favorite cities. I just have a huge problem with England's political history past and present.
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But can we all agree mushy peas are just gross?
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I don’t mean to bash England. I like their cricket and the EPL (I’m a Brighton fan and my son is a Liverpool fan). And I love Boddington beer. I probably watch more EOL games and cricket test matches than MLB games these days.
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Cmon guys… easy on the England bashing…!
Region Rats on
July 6, 2022 10:03 AM
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Good point Buxton. I could go off on a rant about England and its misdeeds through history, but its best that I refrain.
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Haha, it’s only treason if you lose!
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My friends in UK call it “Treason Day”, but I think they mean it in good fun. 250 years is a bit too long for them to hold a grudge.
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Nearly 250 years ago the British blew a 13 colony lead. Happy Independence Day 🇺🇸
SodoMojoDojo on
July 4, 2022 10:04 AM
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It seems Oakland pushed it too far, and Montas might have just lost a LOT of his trade value. It’s fun to see teams press their luck, waiting until the last minute trying to squeeze for more value, only to find they waited too long and lost. Congratulations Oakland - you get what you deserve!
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*Dingers
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I was breathing a sigh of relief I didn’t start Gibson and then Darvish just gave up 3 first inning singers!
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Me too
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Updated my trade block as I realize that I won't be challenging for the 2022 title. Message me if you're interested in any of my players.
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Esteury Ruiz has been unbelievable this year. I don’t know if he really elevated his game this much or is just getting lucky. But if it’s luck, he is extremely, extremely lucky. Padres could really use a boost in their OF. Maybe Ruiz is the breakout sleeper of 2022.
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Does anybody want to carry Royce Lewis through his rehab? I need to free up roster space, and would trade future value (NGonz, Lewis, Bello, Brash, Casas) if I could add a player with keeper value. The pennant race is close in this league so I’m not sure many teams re focused on ‘23, but if you are please let me know.
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Heston Kjerstad's debut is today. I can't believe he hasn't played a single professional game yet.
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Haha, I've been guilty of a rage cut or two over the years.
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Somehow the Damn Yankees win despite allowing 6 HRs. I hate the Yankees.
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Yeah 5 dingers overall on the night for him. Trying his best Eovaldi impersonation from a couple weeks ago. Wonder how many rage cuts there will be after this? 99.14% is his current ownership, seen a 0.29% drop already
SodoMojoDojo on
June 9, 2022 10:21 PM
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Gerrit Cole gave up only six home runs prior to tonights game. First three batters tonight all went yard. Just gave up his fourth in the 2nd inning.
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Judge is up for grabs!
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I do yeah. Miss guys like Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, Eno Sarris, etc. They know their stuff very well and I thought they were highly readable. Was a huge factor in getting more immersed in the business/financial and sabermetric side of baseball. Probably started reading over 10-12 years ago.
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Does anybody else miss the old Fangraphs days? The site has changed so much, and not in a good way. I even miss NotGraphs, which at least was fun. Almost none of the original staff is left.
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Watson is an alpha-male, outwardly a cool guy whom people want to like, and even in the face of dozens of sexual assault allegations he is worth 3 1st round picks, 3 3rd round picks, $230M, and alienation of your existing QB. Is that not insane? What am I missing?
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If you “believe all women”, then Deshaun Watson sexually assaulted 2 dozen women. And Cleveland not only made him the face of the franchise, they gave away so many draft picks and committed so much $ to him, all while alienating the guy whom they probably need to actually play QB for them next year. Insanity.
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The Deshaun Watson trade is mind-blowingly dumb. Not only did Browns give up a TON to get him, they immediately gave him a quarter-billion $, fully guaranteed contract. He is almost certain to be suspended, probably long-term (unless NFL wants to go anti-woke and say they are okay with the allegations against him). So they probably need to retain Baker Mayfield also. Bauer must be banned, but Watson is kind of okay - maybe we can just go along with whatever narrative is spun for us.
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that he is innocent. So WTF is MLB's problem? If Bauer is innocent, which seems like the case, he stands to make a lot more than the salary he is losing this year. NY Times recently purchased The Athletic for the sole purpose of boosting the illusion that subscription rates are rising.
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I was checking up on NFL free agency news for the first time in a couple of months and I ran across an article that there are several women suing DeShaun Watson. If one was innocent of the charges wouldn't the accused sue the accuser of defamation? Trevor Bauer on the other hand, is suing his accuser, Dead Spin and the Athletic. You put yourself at risk when suing someone if you have anything else to hide via discovery. The implication here is that Bauer has a tremendous amount of confidence
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