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If I can't win in 2015 but want to target 2016, a $10 Nick Gordon or $8 Alex Jackson aren't going to help me at all both for the fact that their prices now add to their risk to carry and they don't fit that win curve window.
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You assume draftees or unowned prospects are the only way to rebuild. Trying to build around the severe inflation associated with recent draftees with minimal MiLB experience is exactly the type I would try to avoid if rebuilding.
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I just said precisely the same thing: there is value in keeping him away from other teams, regardless of price, but that not the value we've been debating. I'm just saying the majority of '14 draftees are priced beyond what is reasonable to keep in '15
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Also given how many posts you've put up about irrelevance of price during the season, I'm not seein the problem, except that higher price of rebuilding pieces makes it tougher on your team come October and forward
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Jed has $100-$200 to spread around right now on a limited number of roster spots, I don't know if Rodon is a keeper at $19 in January but how is it wrong that that's what it cost to keep him out of another team now?
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The idea that the price of a player in an unrelated league has anything to do with a players price here is baffling to me
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Check David Price's 2009 stats: that's probably the peak of what you could expect from a starting Rodon in 2015 (and Rodon doesn't scout as David Price). If you're building to compete in 2015, that's a crazy amount of risk in $20 IMO.
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I think it's unrealistic to expect Rodon in '14, but let's just assume he does close in Sept with good success. He's still a $20 SP in '15 with limited MLB IP. That seems super risky.
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You are correct: I'm assuming that there's little if any way any '14 draftee can improve their value between now and Nov. Rodon could be the exception but he's also the most overpriced, so I'm still very skeptical.
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But you're assuming that their value will remain static over the next six months, and I am not. Rodon could be a closer in September and a solid sp in April.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 18, 2014 8:31 AM
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The key factor is not now but at the keeper deadline. Are they worth carrying over into 2015 with prices 4x more than the Ottoneu market? Probably not. In that context, they are wildly overpriced. But that doesn't matter in July.
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You're right: it doesn't matter if you pay them $1 or $100 right now, and there is value is owning a player others cannot. But that's not the value or the timing that is being questioned.
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Bottom line (for the time being): I own them and other owners do not. This has value in itself, and obviously the other owners who drove up the prices agree to some extent.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 18, 2014 8:19 AM
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Again - with my standings / cap situation, why should I care what I'm paying the two (arguably 3) most valuable draftees? I need this explained to me.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 18, 2014 8:17 AM
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Maybe, but more likely it makes more sense to hold prospects bc replacement level in this league is so high and talent distribution so skewed
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Holding overpriced prospects that don't contribute a single active point may be one of the reasons why some teams are still rebuilding.
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The "talk down" of prospects has nothing to do with my salary and everything to do with the fact that we're paying 4x prices in this league than every other league in the land.
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But... This kinda stuff is my job, I'm just lucky that it has some application here, since I'm otherwise pretty worthless in this caliber league :)
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Haha - sorry, in dev mode there. The script is simple in that it doesn't actually take much python knowledge to make. Most of it is beautifulsoup syntax, the rest just accepting the URL list input.
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"Simple python script" is my new go-to oxymoron.
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I'm so bored at work you just made my Friday as it will take me all day to even understand what you probably did in two mins
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Let's review...just a "simple python script"...everyone got that? Jyah!
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Then it's just a bunch of clean-up, which you can script or use find-and-replace in any decent text editor.
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I use a simple python script to pull the raw standings HTML from a list of standings urls. http://codeshare.io/pRz5c
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Also, Crying, please teach me how to pull the data
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It makes sense to talk down prospect prices if you're staring at a total tear down and $550 cuts, if young talent is pricey it's gonna make the process 3 years instead of two
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There's a league called Wins Above Figgins. Ha.
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Here's the breakdown of leagues & how many teams are behind by how much: http://goo.gl/VP0O7A
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I love how the owner with a $700 salary number is passing judgement on how teams with $200 salaries are spending their money.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 17, 2014 10:36 PM
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Pulling standings now, I'll have some data up in a bit. Easy to run a few different ways
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There are exceptions but maybe ~ 1,000 points out of first place as of July 15 would be out of it? Seems like a safe but arbitrary number. Maybe 800?
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What would you say is "completely out of it" ?
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Also curious if, with just two teams in it now, we see a wide swing the other way next season where 8-10 teams are clearly in the mix most of the season. That would be terrific.
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Were fewer teams in our league built to contend out of the gate than average leagues, or are we just quicker to fold and rebuild now that we're four years mature? I'm asking; I truly don't know.
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Maybe Nate can check on that for us. My question is does that mean our ten teams built significantly worse teams than average to start the season? I find that equally hard to believe.
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I would be surprised if there are a lot of leagues with 10 teams completely out as of early July
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In other words, I hope they are kept...
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I think it's probably more realistic to expect that every single one of the 2014 draftees auctioned so far could be cut this off season rather than attract arbitration dollars. Still think Rodon, Schwarber, Aiken, Gordon, etc. are clear cuts at these $.
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I'm sure having 10 rebuilding teams does make a difference, but our '14 draftees look like they are 75% higher than other leagues are paying in some instances. We can't be the only league with just two contenders.
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To answer EP's question: Yes?
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I think it will be interesting come arb time whether they attract $ or not.
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is that hype or the fact that 10 teams are rebuilding?
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Actually this is more interesting: of all the 2014 MLB draftees auctioned so far in our league, we own the highest price for every single one of them in the Ottoneu universe so far. #hype
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I can't tell how many teams actually own him, but Carlos Rodon is now owned in 23% of FGPoints leagues at an average price of $5.24. The highest price among all leagues: $18
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Odorizzi and Archer possibly moving. Let me know if anyone is interested. I'd like some young MI in exchange.
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Chicago Chiefs's trade block has been updated!
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I'td be cool if a tiebreaker could go to the manager who started the auction. I don't know if that's even possible. Would be a cool incentive though.
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VERY cool...thanks Trey
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All-Time standings, updated thru 2014: http://bit.ly/1lxuzo2
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Wish someone could set up all-time standings (points and finishes) hint hint for trey.
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