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my suspicion is there are probably 10-15 consensus "top guys" but splitting hairs between 42 versus 64 highlights the challenges of projecting 4 years out
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OK well throw out Dahl's ridiculous 2012 numbers -- everything I've read from scouts suggests that Rockies have a Buxton-like talent 10 picks lower. Where a 40-place differential comes from I have no idea.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 2:02 PM
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i have no opinion on whether they're good or bad, we'll see when we can compare this list to the other 3/4 (BP, BA, Law etc)
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These guys are clueless.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 2:01 PM
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Adam Eaton at 97 is a joke, he is going to hit leadoff and play CF for a potential playoff team. Trevor Story at 99 is an even bigger joke.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 2:01 PM
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well projecting 18 year old means performance numbers mean less than they would if comparing 28 year old major leaguers.
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Tony Cingrani ranked below 20-25 pitchers whom he has blown out of the water performance-wise, ascended to a playoff team's roster in first pro season. What more do you want the guy to do?
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 2:00 PM
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Buxton at 19, Dahl at 58. Dahl has equivalent tools and performed better last year. So, what, you're penalizing Dahl for being drafted lower than Buxton? Makes no sense.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 1:59 PM
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Noah Syndergaard is #29 despite wide disagreement on whether he can even be a MLB starting pitcher.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 1:57 PM
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Bubba Starling is widely known to have a mechanical disaster of a swing, yet he is somehow prospect 26, with bad mechanics and no accomplishments.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 1:56 PM
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why is the top 100 dumb?
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Lohse must have been WAY above replacement, and he was on waiver probably 75% of the season.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 1:14 PM
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Man that MLB top 100 is dumb.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 1:12 PM
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but that's my point. When guys on the wire are producing at 4.35, it's hard to see the argument that 4.15 is "replacement level". That below replacement level players are rostered is irrelevant. I have tons of below replacement (2013) pitchers rostered
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I wish I could see Pts/IP for guys just while they were in my active lineup
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If you're in a tight race for the championship and you see a guy even with slightly above avg skills it may be worth a shot just to start them vs SEA or HOU, etc. Have to ride the hot hand.
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Yep, pretty close. Had the same value as Smyly, whose been rosetted for months (about to be cut). They were about 4% above replacement, but remember that's the season's stats...
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Smyly was a free agent until mid May, then cut in June, then added again in late July. Again, that's in my mind what the concept of "replacement" is trying to capture
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Tillman was a free agent until July, then on your roster for a week, then cut again and sat on waivers until October. Kind of definition of "replacement"
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There are examples of SP rostered who were below replacement too
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I don't think so. Both Tillman and Smyly were rostered, so there was clearly interest. Were they pitching above their heads? Probably. Tillman, for one, had a low BABIP. But again those stats are only in ~ 90 IP
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that may indicate you've set replacement level too low
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Sanchez and Lee likely on the move...if interested, send in an offer
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Smyly (4.35), Tillman (4.35), and Stultz (4.34) were all above replacement in at least 85 IP
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Two surprise names that pitched well over the replacement value but didn't hit the IP threshold: Pettite (4.83) and Karstens (4.72). But I don't see that happening again...
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some people seem more willing then others to take the chance they can get guys cheaper - may come back to bite. With some guys expecting major inflation, guys like CC and Halladay could end up north of $40, so certainly risk
Caimans 🐊 on
January 30, 2013 12:14 PM
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I'd expect Moore to be cut now that Halladay is placed back in the pool. If no one wants to pay much more than $40 for elite guys like Kershaw, Verlander, then that should lower the price for Moore in the auction
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I'm with War Horse in that it'd take a special pitcher for me to pay more than $40, and Halladay can be that but a lot of risk after last season
Caimans 🐊 on
January 30, 2013 11:43 AM
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changed my mind overnight. don't regret giving up some guys that were on my fence to consider it.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 30, 2013 11:39 AM
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Seems like a good time to mention that Drew Smyly is available on the cheap. ZiPS has him approximating last year's performance over 160 IP.
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If medlen Estrada and cashner throw 225 IP their skills suggest that that would make them elite. But that is a huge if.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 11:15 AM
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Like cliff Lee was just an injury plagued schmo with a great skill set, then he started throwing 225 IP and we were like well OK then, guess he's elite.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 11:13 AM
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The value is to be found in high quality IP who have not yet produced high quantity due to injury or opportunities.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 11:11 AM
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Right it's relative to the pool, and favors the pitchers who combine quality IP with quantity IP.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 11:10 AM
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Its not that Kershaw might be 37% better than replacement value, it depends on the distribution of potential replacements; ie if 37% is only 1 standard deviation away the price is low than if it's 2.5 away
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If Felix keeps up current trends he'll be throwing 87 mph fastballs this year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 10:17 AM
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If Felix keeps up current trends he'll be throwing 87 mph fastballs this year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 10:17 AM
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Got heeeeeeeeeeem. Millar and Rose are entertaining also. Not so informative, but def entertaining.
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yeah...guys that can make fun of themselves and enjoy it and provide some level of insight are ok in my book...which is why I like Kruk
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I never used to like him, but he does this segment on Hot Stove called "Country Fried Fridays" and he is hilarious. He jokes about himself all the time. Not the best analyst, but he knows he's a dumbass, so I'm ok with him. Haha.
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What about Mitch Williams?
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Agree. Can't stand Billy or Jerry Manuel. I love everyone else.
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It is true the replacement level I calculated yesterday was in a "vaccuum"; in essence it's the replacement value of an SP at the season's end with all data finalized. Not sure how to account for the scarcity of the auction with SP's already rostered
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With you completely....I can't stand Billy Ripken, but the rest more than makes up for it.
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This may be completely random to people here, but I love MLB Network. I watch Hot Stove in the morning with Harold Reynolds and Matt Vasgersian with bits of Ken Rosenthal. Love it. Can't wait for the season to start!
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Right the total IP argument is huge. There are VERY few pitchers whom you can confidetnly pencil in for 220+ IP. That bulk effect is absolutely worth paying a premium for, this is why I overpaid for Cliff Lee.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 9:06 AM
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That in a vacuum number is interesting, but abundance/scarcity will always throw that number way off. Although $37 was, interestingly, Kershaw's original auction price, I think. When everything WAS in a vacuum.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 9:04 AM
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Keep in mind that's his value only from a pts/IP standpoint. It doesn't factor in his value coming from throwing 220+ IP. In other words, Kershaw is 37% better in each IP than a replacement, but ALSO pitches more of those better innings.
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But that is in a vacuum and not taking into account other pitchers that are being kept at much less than market value...and the one guy keeping Moore for much more than market value...
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Not sure if my math is right, but if 4.17 pts/IP is replacement level, that should be a $1 SP. Kershaw was 37% better than that (pts/IP), so his "worth" was $37 in 2012.
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