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If Felix keeps up current trends he'll be throwing 87 mph fastballs this year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 8:49 AM
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Oh Strasburg and Price I would pay $40+ for.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 8:47 AM
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The price I'm really interested to see is Sabathia. Anywhere between 20 and 40 wouldn't shock me.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 8:46 AM
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The $40 pitcher is just a scary proposition period. I would keep verlander, Kershaw, maybe Felix at $40+.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 30, 2013 8:44 AM
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I'm surprised either is being kept at 41. If I had to choose, guess I'd go with Doc.
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I'm not comparing Kershaw and Moore. Kershaw is significantly better. Halladay was just an interesting comp because of older age and similar price
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Though I'd give Doc the edge for 2013. He's not done yet.
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I was going to cut Halladay, pleased to have gotten 2 players I'm keeping for him.
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I'm with EP, Moore has a lot to prove to be discussed with the likes of Kershaw. Either way, he'd probably get a few arb $ so talking about $43 keeper is a little disingenuous.
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geez, apparently I'm not as high on Matt Moore as the rest of this league
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Fantastic question and scenario....Halladay may be slightly better play in 2013 but almost no way he is kept @ $43 in 2014 like Moore would be barring injury/meltdown which is a small concern
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Who is the better $41 investment for 2013: Moore or Halladay? I honestly could be persuaded either way probably.
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Halladay is close call but will probably keep him just for how much I gave up for him.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 29, 2013 10:52 PM
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I'm considering 1 or 2 more, but likely done.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 29, 2013 10:51 PM
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I have a couple more decisions as well
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I have a few more decisions left but not many
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Chiefs have gotta be cutting some guys, right?
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Done now.
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I am done.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 29, 2013 8:14 PM
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Are all teams done with cuts or are there teams just wanting to cause a bit of anticipation at this point?
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Tomorrow I will try to dig deep on relief pitchers
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That should be a solid $2 profit since you can own him for $1
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Bold prediction: Lackey will be worth more than $3 this year.
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Also learned this today: John Lackey is not replacement level.
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I don't know, Harper was a 19 year old and a top 15 player in the NL, Moore was 23 and posted a 4.35 xFIP. But he certainly does have ace upside that's for sure
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Kind of like Bryce Harper...may not fully earn the price tag this year, but I think he only gets better...I know arms are risky, but I'm rolling with it for this year and want to see what happens...it could certainly all blow up
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he may be overpriced, but I think he would still go for close to $35 and I will gladly pay the extra $6 with my flexibility to insure another crazy bidding war doesn't take him above it
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Wow well there you have it on Moore.
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Matt Moore will not be cut
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I dropped 3 of those 11.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 29, 2013 5:05 PM
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There will obviously be more talent available than that b/c my cutoff was 160 IP, so there will be guys like Harvey and Cashner who could hit the mark but weren't close to 160 IP
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Verlander, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sabathia, Capuano, Harrell, JJ, EJax, Volquez, T. Hudson, Detwiler. (yes, several unsexy names there). Matt Moore could be added to that list if dropped.
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Maybe most interesting: Of the 46 SP that met the requirements (above replacement), only 11 will be available in the draft:
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No, not yet sure how to account for teams that fold or players that are traded, etc. Basically it's just a static look at 2012 results.
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did you put that spreadsheet up anywhere Trey? Very interesting. I wonder how you control for the churn that happens, as well as for teams dropping out of the 2012 race and looking to the future, as those things affect replacement
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I like it, nice work Strikes. maybe I shoulda kept JJ after all
Caimans 🐊 on
January 29, 2013 4:24 PM
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Apologize for taking over the message board with this info, but thought it was interesting. Could be very flawed, but when I realized only 5 SP had been cut above my threshold, it seems to carry some weight.
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93 SP pitched a min. of 160 IP in 2012, and the average PT/IP was 4.17. Eliminating all those under 4.17, leaves 46, of which only 5 have been cut from rosters...
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Ding ding.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 29, 2013 3:18 PM
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In other words, I expect the average teams needs to use 7 SP @ 160 IP each to reach the remaining 1125 IP (375 filled by RP).
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That leaves 1125 IP remaining to get out of your SP slots, or 225 IP/SP if you limit to 5. Only 5 SP in '12 threw 225 IP; 55 SP threw 187 IP; 93 threw 160 IP, which is the number I finally used.
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I used RP data to back into estimates for SP usage. For instance, the avg. RP (using top 60 scoring RP) in 2012 threw 68 IP. I rounded up to 75, which, with 5 slots, gives you 375 IP out of 1500.
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Assumptions: 1) It's not enough just to meet just the pts/IP level; there's also value in those SP that maximize total innings, too.
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Detwiler (4.17), Volquez (4.20), Josh Johnson (4.69), L. Harrell (4.31), Capuano (4.17) - with the exception of JJ, all were at the floor of the replacement level
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From what I can tell, the "market" (our league) has been functioning with a similar number, as only 5 of the 46 have been dropped so far. They are:
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Based on several assumptions I came up with minimum IP of 160 and replacement level of 4.17 pts/IP. Using those scenarios, there were 46 SP that met both requirements (I included Strasburg).
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Been playing with A LOT of data today based on last year's scoring for pitchers. I sorta backed into a few assumptions, but I'm prepared to say with some degree of confidence that the replacement level for SP last year was 4.17 points/IP
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Ding ding.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 29, 2013 2:55 PM
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sounds like razzball to me
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Let's play "guess that fantasy site"....
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 29, 2013 2:37 PM
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