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http://arizonasports.com/42/1609410/Montero-on-Trevor-Bauer-He-never-wanted-to-listen
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 12, 2013 8:27 AM
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Good luck on your physical tomorrow king Felix. Please have results faxed to mr ASAP.
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Funny, this was just posted: http://www.faketeams.com/2013/2/11/3978830/the-art-of-war-prospect-strategy
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In other news, Bourn to Indians!?!? Didn't see that coming...
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I could talk "game theory" stuff all day. I think that's what I like best about Ottoneu...
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That last big trade with Durham last year giving up Cespedes, Gio, etc. was probably unnecessary. But I had to go all in; once you get to that point 2nd-3rd place becomes a big letdown if you've given up everything for a shot at 1st
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Ideally, if you're an uncompetitive team, you can get the most value out of your trade able studs by waiting till the last moment. I was ready to give up the moon at the deadline last year and I had a decent lead (I think) at the trade deadline
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...that could put more pressure on top teams to fight among waivers until those uncompetitive teams finally gives up the goods nearer the deadline. Could be interesting. I also expect (hope) a little more parity this season anyway.
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I don't remember that, but that would imply that there will be a lot of mobility in terms of finish from last year to this year, I wonder if that will wind up being true
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Trading prospects for RP (or any player) could be a winning strategy, but I distinctly remember several teams last year stating they wish they had waited longer before "blowing it up"...
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Good question. Nobody has a lot of cap space in April so you won't see too many auctions go over $5.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 11:05 PM
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How would you know how much to budget?
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Guys like Rodney and Wilhelmsen were worthless in late March and had mega-value in late May. A lot of that stuff gets sorted out in April/May.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 11:02 PM
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In a way I'd almost think you'd be better off buying zero RP at auction and then leaving budget for waiver wire spending sprees in April/May.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 11:01 PM
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ah, got it
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No, I'm probably going to buy 1 or 0 this year. I meant that I was more resolved this year to have RP heading INTO the auction so that I didn't have to overspend for jerks like Matt Thornton again.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 10:57 PM
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I'd rather pay $5 now for a guy I think has a shot at 30 Saves/Holds than trade Miguel Sano for Heath Bell.
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Jed, you bought 8 RPs at auction last year (eyeballing that) -- you're going to buy more this year?
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I agree that people think that, its just wrong. Also, RPs obviously have low value year over year so they're easily acquire-able in season for teams with the right farm system
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If other owners are feeling the same way, then the Rodneys and Wilhelmsens of 2013 may well be owned by March 4.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 10:51 PM
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It'll be interesting. I can only speak to my own strategy, but I am much more conscious of bringing RP to the auction this year than last year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 10:51 PM
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Personally, I would love to see Bill's strategy work since I don't plan to draft an RP until the 2014 auction, at best, but I'm skeptical...
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The fact that "crap" (no-name) guys like Parnell, Strop, Gregerson, etc. are owned seems to suggest others see the scarcity and prefer to have the cost certainty of opportunity, despite the inherent RP risk
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If this were a Roto league, punting RP (Saves) would totally work in my opinion. But not a chance in this format. Those high leverage innings are just too valuable. The fact that crap guys like Parnell, Gr
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For roto / saves-only leagues, you don't want to overpay for your closer. But in a league like this, virtually any RP with really high skills is ownable, so that pool of "unfound closers" is much smaller.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 10:47 PM
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yep, that's what I saw. If I said anything other than 3/10 it was a typo
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I show just 3 of the top 10 from 2012 were picked up as FA (Rodney, Wilhelmsen, Cook)
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You can't say with any more certainty that the top 10 isn't already rostered. I' m betting it is because in this format teams are collecting skills, which are the precursor to top-ranked RP. If it wasn't LWTS, punting might work.
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I can buy the argument that RP are fungible and that they are more of a roll of the dice than other positions, but not drafting any RP, in this format, seems way more of a risky roll of the dice (IMO)
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you are assuming predictability about RP that there isn't any data to support
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over the last 3 years, only 2 names have appeared more than once. 30% of the top 10 last year were added as FAs. I'm just baffled as to why people think that the 2013 Top 10 is already rostered
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...in fact, he may suck again, but, to Jed's point, there are only so many guys that will touch Saves/Holds, so Bell gets value with opportunity. You spend $8 ($3 more than you wanted), and he keeps the job for 3 weeks and then gets DFA'd. Not good.
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Example: Let's say you save $5 for each of 5 RP and pick them up mid season ($25). Let's assume Putz blows out his arm and the DBacks name Bell the closer again. Well, regardless of how good Bell is, his price is going north of $5 easily on waivers...
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3 of last years top 10 were added as FA's last year; another was cut during the season
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But there aren't like infinite players with a legit shot at 30+ saves/holds. There are plenty of RP who can dominate over 50-70 IP, but the list of guys who can and will pitch the final two innings is not huge.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 10:33 PM
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I'd argue those guys will be tough to find (if they exist). And, if I'm wrong (possible), how in the world would you know how much cash to leave open to budget for 5+ guys you might have to pick up? Cost certainty has value, even within volatility
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I guess my bottom line argumen is yes, RP are volatile, more than any other position. No doubt. But teams are drafting skills in this format, not "closers", and most skills are already rostered. How will you find top 10 "skills" mid-season, post draft?
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All convincing data - but what are the odds that 10 of 11 teams already own or will draft each of the top 10? I'd say pretty good. So where does that leave you if you don't draft RP (or even use any this season)?
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Top 10 the last 3 years: http://wp.me/putq9-5u; only two guys have managed to show up twice
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I will bet you any amount you choose that 2 or fewer of them make the top 10 at the end of the year
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The top 10 for 2013 (projected by RotoWire) in our format are: Kimbrel, Papelbon, Motte, Balfour, D. Hernandez, Holland, Wilhelmsen, Jansen, Axford, Marshall. 9 of 10 are owned.
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None of those guys in the top 10, 3 ranked 14-25, and 4 literal zeroes
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Rivera, Nathan, Valverde, S Santos, Soria, Kuo, Broxton, Farnsworth, Soriano, Thornton
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Here are the top 10 RP for 2012 according to Baseball Prospectus:
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Papelbon is a guy I'd consider "elite"; he's a free agent and has averaged 592 P/YR for the last 7 seasons. This is probably the same debate BOS had internally, but let him go. Pap was overpaid but there's added value in that security at the end of game
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I think you have to seperate injuries from under-performance. If not, you could use the same argument for any position, especially SP. I don't have enough data to show that RP flame out due to injury X% more than SP. Probably less.
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So if you "punt" RP in the auction, don't you still have to leave at least 5 roster spots open to pick them up in-season? Maybe that will work, but how could you ever budget how much cash you'd need to do that. Newly annointed CL will be bid on by all.
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the numbers show that. But the belief that they do continues to exist
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"elite" RP don't exist.
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do your rotowire projections still show their 2012 numbers? I'd like to compare to actual results. I guarantee they had Rivera and Wilson in the top 10
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