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I agree completely, which is why "elite" RP (high skills + opportunity + history) are so valuable, and thus expensive. Those aren't really available in the free agent pool (for cheap, anyway). They'll go much higher than that $5 average.
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Its more than opportunity and skill. You're talking about massive fluctuations in BABIP and HR allowed over 60 IP samples, it's absolutely the biggest crapshoot in otto
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There absolutely will be break out RP this season that bust into that pool of 27 free agent RP (400 point min), but more than any other position it has as much to do with opportunity as it does skill. Tough to predict.
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RPs are simply not like any other position
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that's the point though -- it isn't. Pick your top 10 RPs, top 10 1B and top 10 SS. I'll bet you your least accurate picks are RP
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If we had more data (several fantasy seasons), the hindsight option would hold more weight. If over 5 season the average RP P/IP were 7.5, you could say with some degree of certainty that's the target for auction, etc.
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I think hindsight (last year averages, etc.) is the primary option. Real-time is possible in season, but there's no way to see the future, or guarantee a breakout RP will maintain rations throughout the season. That's the case for all players, really.
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Thank you for the pub, Trey. The challenge isn't that there aren't RPs that are very valuable; the issue is identifying them through any lens other than hindsight I think.
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I meant to post Bill's article earlier - http://goo.gl/j82wc
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I'll let you do your own research (mystery), but there are two RP that project to be more than 20% better than least year's RP P/IP of 7.83. However, of the 27, 13 project at least 10% worse than last year's P/IP for RP
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According to these projections (arbitrary), there are 5 free agent RP that are projected to be at least 10% better than last year's average P/IP of currently owned RP.
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There are 41 true RP owned; Not including my roster (not planning to draft or use RP during rebuild), there are 55 RP slots (11 x 5), so there are at least 14 RP slots that need to be filled
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Of those 27 free agent RP, the lowest P/IP was 5.87 (better than Kershaw in 2012), so it's probably save to assume that a 400 point RP is at least better than the best SP
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Only 5 of the 27 beat the owned RP average of 513 points, but ten of them beat the P/IP average of 7.83.
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Using RotoWire projections (arbitrary), I pulled all available RP that would score a min. of 400 points; there were 27 of them. They averaged 63 IP and 468 points, or almost 9% less than the average of the owned 35
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15 of the 35 were above the average of 512 points, so the average is skewed to the top with guys like Kimbrel, Rodney, etc. (I did not include Chapman in the data).
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Of the top 35 RP owned (min. 45 IP in '12), the avg price was $5.34. Average IP: 65+; Average Points: 513; P/IP Average: 7.83
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Re: RP - Read Bill's article today; I think it's a good debate. Not commenting on either side of the argument here, but pulled some interesting data today on RP from our league:
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2 of them: I'd love to have a $30 Jose Bautista with an absolutely stacked Blue Jays lineup. And I think we have all forgotten a $6 Yu Darvish who, as a rookie, was a stones-throw away from 1000pts....
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Hey guys, don't forget to send your $25 league dues to Bill. (Bill Porter, 1834 Broderick Street SF CA 94115).
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No RA Dickey love? I'd love to own a reigning Cy Young winner for $5...
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Yeah I'm going to have to go with Alex Gordon as well
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Mine might be Alex Gordon. Not a huge ceiling or anything, but such a complete player.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 2:52 PM
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What is the one player you covet on another team's roster? Hurts to admit this as a STL fan, but mine has to be Anthony Rizzo. Not sure he'll explode, but he's a good bet to improve and is underpriced. Great contract, fun player to watch.
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There is something to be said for letting a couple of weeks of April play out rather than reaching for blah RP though. I think I spent something like $15 on Brothers and Thornton at 2012 auction, total waste of money.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 9:26 AM
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Jed, your comment about Rodney sustaining your team for a few months is exactly how I felt about landing Chapman in trade mid season. My P/IP really took off after that.
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I definitely buy into the notion that closers (all RP) are volatile, and that overpaying for them before the draft can be dangerous. However, not drafting any at all and thinking you can pick them up mid season is more dangerous. There's a balance.
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Working on my spreadsheet it looks like there's almost a higher percentage of "closers in waiting" owned then there is actual closers. Must be a price issue.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 9:04 AM
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I'm convinced that adding Fernando Rodney in April kept me in the race way longer than I deserved to be in it, but that kind of April waiver find cannot be expected to be an annual thing. Total freak season.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 9:04 AM
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Although I will say that had that loophole not been in place, I would not have added Kris Medlen when I did.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 9:02 AM
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Yeah that was such a cheesy end-around. Very glad to have that behind us.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 9:01 AM
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Agree, and this season quality RP mean even more since you can't plug RP into the SP slot.
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Bottom line is you want to maximize the value of every inning from your bullpen because it's the highest P/IP available. You want every IP possible to come out of your RP slots.
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Sure, you can pick them up on waivers but that assumes a) there is quality available, b) you already know who they are, and c) you aren't already too far behind the pack to make up the difference with who you find.
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Ultimately you need a whole bunch of saves and holds to compete, I don't see how you get around that. The question is whether you can get them on waivers midseason or not. But you can't just throw 7th-inning guys into your RP slots and hope to win.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 11, 2013 7:28 AM
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we will see how it plays out but I can assure you that I don't agree that one needs to draft a bullpen
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Draft cash per available roster spot: Strikes: $20/9; WGW: $18/8; FMW: $18/11; EP $12/7; Crying $12/14; Knights $10/22; Chiefs $10/7; WAR $10/14; Durham $8/14; Syndicate $8/4; Shoeless $6/16; MoPain $5/12
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...and, like SP, unless you have freaking studs up and down, you really need to mix and match about 7 RP, not 5
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There's certainly more than one way to skin a cat, but I absolutely believe my bullpen was one of the most important reasons I won in '12. Not drafting a bullpen would be a death blow.
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That is an interesting assumption
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You're better than me because I assume you'll be drafting five RP in the auction
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Having me 11th in bullpen implies I'm better than someone -- with zero RPs that seems wrong
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If Chapman goes back to the bullpen, it bumps up the Knights significantly, to 8.7 pts/IP (2nd)
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See, I told you Felix sucks, that's why I traded him.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 10, 2013 3:58 PM
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My bullpen includes three fulltime closers who were not fulltime closers last year. FWIW.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 10, 2013 3:57 PM
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"Felix pulled out of WBC after physical showed 'issue' with elbow, delaying his $175M deal"
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Top 3 bullpens: 3) Knights @ 8.10 pts/IP, 2) Durham @ 8.34/IP, and 1) Syndicate @ 9.41/IP
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11) Enrico, 10) FMW @ 5.64/IP, 9) Crying @ 6.85/IP, 8) Chiefs @ 6.99/IP, 7) MoPain @ 7.2, 6) WGW @ 7.49, 5) Shoeless @ 7.94, 4) WAR @ 8.02
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Bullpen Review: just using 2012 results, here's how the current bullpen's rank in Pts/IP:
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The "least" valuable keepers, in terms of Points/G or Points/IP (small sample warning): L. Martin 1.77 pts/G; D. Straily 1.85/IP; B. Jackson 2.63/G; Mesoraco 2.85/G; J. Vargas 3.52/IP; J. Hellickson 3.60/IP
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