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You're arguing that I shouldn't do something I didn't actually do.
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He traded for Sonny Gray; I don't want to speak for Durham but I suspect that was a piece that filled out the deal but was just a non zero filler on the trade to fill it out
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If we're both guessing whether Perkins and Holland will repeat dominance, I'd rather pay Holland $13 than the price of an elite prospect. Seems like a lower cost to just pay cash
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I'm sure you know that i didn't trade Russell for Glen Perkins. I traded him for Sonny Gray.
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And if you could, the data seems to suggest you should be looking outside of last year's top 10, save for a small handful of obviously elite skills guys.
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If you cannot, why trade a top prospect like A. Russell for G. Perkins?
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And the answer is no, you cannot.
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The data absolutely confirms volatility; it also seems to confirm that if you have a top 10 RP, they are significantly more valuable than replacement. So the question is, can you identify those guys?
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It's volatile everywhere. The point being made is that it's nearly impossible to identify who will perform at a high level year over year, so attempting to build an "elite" bullpen in the offseason just won't work.
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There's not a direct correlation that says since top 10 RP in 2011 didn't repeat in 2012 the top 10 of 2013 can't be equally valuable in 2014.
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RP volatility is apparent at the top 10 b/c that's all I ran, but why would it be less volatile 11-60 or 61-72?
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I was already on Enrico's side in this argument so I'm biased, but I think the data confirms that RP volatility should have some people here rethinking their strategy.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 15, 2014 11:25 AM
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Given that you are betting that guys in 2014 will be elite based on what they did in 2013, it would be interesting for you to take the top 10 from 2011 and rune their 2012 numbers, and do the same for 2012-2013 since the issue identifying RP prospectively
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So the only guys that can replicate a top 10 season are Mo, Aroldis, Kenley, and Kimbrel. Is this the end of the argument?
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Haven't had time to draw any conclusions yet, but here's some raw RP data to work with. What else do you want to see? http://bit.ly/L5ezio
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Mike Minor is available. I've received some good offers but I'll give it a couple days before I accept anything. Looking for infield depth in a multi player deal or a big bat in a one for one deal.
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Now that Mariano Rivera has retired, I'm not sure I would be 100% confident of any RP maintaining the same role/skill the entire season. Am I missing someone? Kimbrel probably. Anyone else?
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Right, the "role" is factored into P/IP by virtue of save/hold bonuses. I'm interested in this debate because I am very on the fence about keeping a $9 Casey Janssen.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 10:01 AM
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I'm choosing P/IP vs raw Points because I think it does a better job of factoring in both skills and opportunity. You could have elite "stuff" but without opportunity (Saves/Holds), it's tough to rank high
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And that assists EPs point that roles change frequently for RP, and their skills sometime fluctuate due to inconsistent roles. Thus, it's as much of a guessing game as a skilled projection game. Right, EP?
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I view Farquhar as an elite RP, but there's no way a 2013 statistical analysis would yield that conclusion. It's more about skills + role.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 9:37 AM
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One thing to factor in is the difference between total points and P/IP. Like are the 10 highest point totals truly the most valuable RP? Like is it really that 500 points you need, or is that 10 P/IP that you need? Tough to analyze.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 9:32 AM
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I hope to run some analysis on three year trends among RP today. I want to test my hypothesis. Trying now to establish some rationale for finding true replacement level RP. Will post results soon.
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Like Sergio Santos had eckersley like numbers in limited action last season. But he could be worthless this year due to murky role.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 8:43 AM
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The top 20 RP is doubly tough to prognosticate because you need both skills and a role to be valuable. Other positions the roles are much less fluid in season.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 8:42 AM
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Tell that to Fernando Rodney and Joel Peralta and Tom wilhelmsen owners last year. Lulz.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 8:40 AM
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The disagreement seems to be whether or not it's possible to identify elite RP year to year vs replacement. I think you can, and am willing to pay for it. Other teams will disagree and can invest the difference elsewhere on their roster.
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Look, I'm not saying RP isn't volatile, but the risk is built into the price. No one is paying $50 for Kimbrel. Just seems to me that there's risk everywhere, but you aren't paying the premium (price) in RP that you might in other position
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If "no other position than SP is more susceptible to injury and lost playing time" then how can RP be the "most volatile" position?
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Sp is volatile in large part because no other position is more susceptible to injury and lost playing time. Kind of a red herring there.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 11:01 PM
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No position is more volatile than rp, and it's not even close.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 11:00 PM
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Not necessarily. Trades can net you both cap space and unwanted rp.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 10:59 PM
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Every position is volatile. Compare the top 10 season ending SP from 2012 to 2013. OF isn't much better.
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Just to throw out some names of elite RP recently... Rodney, Melancon, Farquhar, Crain...
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 10:57 PM
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sure you can get it via the waiver wire, but you have to save a decent amount of cash from the draft to make that a season long strategy.
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The volatility of the position does make it a bit unrealistic to try and prognosticate an elite bullpen preseason though.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 10:55 PM
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I disagree....the predictability of that kind of point increase is why those position players are much more expensive anyway. I'm not saying that there is a better way to predict RP performance though
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I agree with the point that a great bullpen is necessary to win, but I also think that rp is by far the easiest position to get elite production via FA.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 14, 2014 10:53 PM
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Whereas the $20 spent elsewhere has a much more predictable result.
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More importantly, I think EP is saying that its extremely tough for anyone to accurately predict that your $20 will increase your P/RP by that much, if at all, due to the volatility of the position from pre to post season.
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Pagan/Braun is an example. But if EP could find a way to make that $20 translate into >850, then that would be the way to go. May be tough.
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The numbers I used were just made up. No idea what positions typically score what points for totals. I should probably get an idea on that.
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It just seems like you can spend much less to make your bullpen an advantage over other teams than other parts of your team. But as WGW said, the point is to maximize points everywhere.
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Compare that to spending $50 for the difference between A. Pagan (~ 700 points) & Braun (~1,100), which is just 400 points. I'd still have $30 to spend elsewhere.
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As an example, I'd rather spend $20 more than EP for my bullpen for a shot at 600 P/RP than 430 P/RP. That's a net of 850 points gained for a $20 investment.
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Awesome point. I give up
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I happen to think having a terrific bullpen is a huge advantage over the course of a long season.
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I don't really follow how spending $10 less on RP can become 1500 additional points in the OF, but there are lots of different ways to skin the cat when it comes to scoring strategies, for sure.
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Mariano was the 15th RP with 540 points, the 50th RP scored 100 fewer, and there are 19 free agents already of that top 50
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The statement "I'd like to maximize the point total out of my bullpen" is true for all of us, so long as you include "given the players I have" or "given the $ I've decided to allocate to RP."
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