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Lucky Strikes's trade block has been updated!
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Trade as many relievers to Trey as you can. Thanks.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 16, 2014 10:03 AM
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oh good point....you probably should have asked sooner. what else can we do to assist in your quest for repeat?
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So why don't we all start cutting people so I can tell who's going to be available at the auction?
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 16, 2014 6:38 AM
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http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000EVQWKC/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk?tag=hydfbook0e-20&ascsubtag=US-SAGE-1385695861998-SVNDG
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 10:49 PM
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Jed's 2014 projections for Stanton alone propel his team into the 7 P/G stratosphere...
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6 is the holy grail of P/G. Only one team did it last year. Two managed 6 P/IP.
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I predict a Shelby Miller for Manny Machado deal...
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Seven sounds about right. Maybe 8.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 5:39 PM
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I plan to run a similar analysis on OF's next. Is it fair to say the average team will roster 7 active MLB OF's? More? Less?
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To get to 6.0 P/IP you would need 5 Mark Melancons.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 5:33 PM
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So I've got a good deal on the table for Miller. Unless I get something better in the next couple of hours, I'm taking it.
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That makes you a Master Champion. 6.0 and 6.0 would be Grand Master...!
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So if I averaged 5.5 and 5.8, does that make me an ultra-champion?
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 4:52 PM
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Ha. And you all thought $56 sounded astronomical.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 4:51 PM
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While we're all debating, we might as well discuss this: Looks like a champion will need to average ~ 5.4 P/G and 5.4 P/IP to win this year - http://goo.gl/k7oTNE (thanks to Nate for this data).
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By "young" I also meant unproven. Improving my bullpen was even more of a priority when I thought I was going into battle with guys like Shelby, Wheeler, Gausman, and Ross.
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Aside from Fernandez, everyone else you've got is basically that range or older
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Sale is 24, Stras 25, Darvish 27
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If I owned two of Wainwright, Sale, Darvish, or Strasburg I may feel differently about this strategy, but I committed to the young guys the moment I did a full rebuild last off season.
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The last line of this post does a good job of what Syndicate and I seem to agree on with regards to the value of RP this season: http://goo.gl/0hgIEz
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lol! his head doesn't fit
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holy crap barely recognizeable Panda: https://twitter.com/mike_v_23/status/423530826052038656/photo/1
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But that is why for me and my roster, it is worth it to keep $29 for Kimbrel and Aroldis, and keep my fingers crossed that they continue to bring it!
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That's not to say that I won't be scouring the waiver wire for cheap $2 guys who step in to close or hold when others fail, and if that happens, I will be glad to spend more on my bats!!!
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And samr for my SP....all are affordable but really only 4.5 - 5.5 p/pg guys, so I HAVE to try and get the most from my bullpen to pull my total p/ip up as high as possible.
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But for me, it is about roster construction only. I dont have many superstar bats, more like an consistent lineup top to bottom of 5-6 p/pg guys.....
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I love this format and this league. As someone who will probably spend the most $ on my bullpen (40-48 ish), I obviously believe in the value of a strong RP force....
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I think it's very open to question whether I had an elite bullpen last year. I had two elite relievers but I don't recall having consistently stellar talent beyond Melancon and Holland.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 1:03 PM
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My bullpen costs $30 so I guess that puts me in the Trey camp.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 15, 2014 12:59 PM
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Someone made a good point earlier though: my RP strategy has a lot to do with my roster construction. I don't have an SP over $15, so I essentially have excess funds over some and need to spend it somewhere. I chose the bullpen.
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If it turns out you're right, huge advantage. But if even one of your 5 elite RPs miss, it's a total loss
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I'm obviously in the minority here, which is fine. I don't disagree at all that it's difficult to project year to year production from RP, but if it were truly impossible, all RP would be $1. I''ll take my chances.
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Of course they can. But history shows how's that from a combination of injuries, luck and the small sample problems associated with BABIP and HR allowed, odds are they wont. But I for one am stoked you're gambling on this rather than something else
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He signs A. Pagan for $4 (700 points) and I sign Braun for $49 (1,200). I net a 500 point advantage, but it's taken me $45 to get that same advantage I would have gotten from my bullpen in spending $20 (which leaves me $25 to gain more).
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Let's assume for a second that both EP and I have 4 OF's and will both accrue 4,000 pts from our total OF. We each still need one OF in the draft. He has $5 to spend, and I have $50. Big advantage, right?
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If there's no advantage to keeping or drafting a top RP because of volatility, why doesn't everyone just have a $5 bullpen and put all that cash savings elsewhere?
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Sure, I"m gambling that my five elite RP will remain elite, depsite what the history shows. But there's no direct correlation that says they still can't perform at an elite level.
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The perfect comparison is my team vs. EP, as he's likely to spend $15 on his bullpen, and I've spent $34 on mine. So, I've spent $20 for a 500 point advantage. Can I spend $20 in my OF to get > 500 point net advantage? 1B? 3B? No.
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The data shows that an elite level RP can be worth approx. 150 points above a mid-level RP. Let's be conservative and say it's just 100 points. That's 500 points net gain compared to a team throwing out 5 RP at about 7.25 P/IP.
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EP, you are exactly right, and that's exactly how I look at it: 150 points gained per spot. That's a huge advantage at a relatively cheap cost.
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I don't know 3000 is probably uninteresting, above 3000 means ok, you managed to get 100-150 more per spot
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True test: Lucky spent 34 on top 5 RPs, replacement level for 5 RPs is roughly 2400-2500. So we should see what those specific 5 guys score relative to 2400-2500. Anything less is a disaster, anything below say
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It's probably pretty telling that 3 of 2011's top 10 and 2 of 2012's didn't even qualify the subsequent year, based on your criteria.
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And I don't need Perkins to repeat, nor do I expect him to. I expect him to regress but to be steady and not lose his role. I'm willing to pay $7 for that given the rest of my roster constitution.
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And that's pretty fair probably; Russell looks like a beast and Giolito is huge upside huge variance; Gray has already shown ML success and is super cheap. Perkins is such a small part of that trade
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That trade is Russell Giolito for Gray
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I didn't trade a single player for Perkins. He was part of a multi--player deal.
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While Durham will happily take Perkins, I doubt he cares much about how he turns out if he gets kept
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Use Giolito or Russell - either way you factored in value in Perkins' ability to repeat in your willingness to give up a big future piece
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