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Though I wonder if teams with a SS who aren’t really contending would move their SS to take advantage of the seller’s market. Could Tigers dump Baez in this market?
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Dansby Swanson should take his time now…. He is the only real option at SS, and several contending teams could use a SS. Red Sox, Dodgers (maybe - depends on their faith in Lux), Angels, Braves, Cubs, Twins. Swanson has bargaining power.
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I think you are right. MLB has allowed them the artifice 11 to 14 year contracts, clearly designed to minimize the AAV. Not a problem as far as I am concerned, but if they plan to step in and void somebody’s mega-contract, they will face a problem with arbitrators or a court. If they set up an arbitrary cutoff, and deny a player a huge deal because the commish felt like it was just too far, they will have a big problem.
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Yeah these long deals are definitely not an expectation to actually be a 10-13 year contract. I feel like in truth clubs are looking at these as 7-8ish year contracts with money differed to 10-13 years.
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The Tatis deal pays Tatis relatively little early on, and escalates. From 2029-2034 he gets $36M per year. The lost season of 2022 he was “only” to be paid $5M so his suspension did not cost him a big % of the contract. I don’t know about Correa’s deal but if it is straight $27M per, at least the late seasons won’t be quite as bad. But I assume Giants know they are paying him to pinch hit and DH the last few seasons like Miguel Cabrera.
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I wonder which deal looks worse by the end, Tatis at 14 yrs for $340 million or Correa at 13 years for $350 million? I'd normally say Correa since Tatis was younger when signed and is a good amount better as a hitter but he's not off to a good start with the shoulder issues, motorcycle accidents and banned substance suspension.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 14, 2022 12:24 AM
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I bet you'd really like the book, Loria is dealt with in it. I was fascinated reading it and would recommend it any fan whether you like the Expos or not.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 14, 2022 12:18 AM
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So much for my Mets theory. Giants signed Correa to a 10 year, $350M contracts… of course it is stretched out to 13 years for avoidance of luxury tax purposes, so formally they will call it 13/$350M. Good lord baseball either is more profitable than I could imagine, or there is reckless financing going on. Holy God that is a lot of money to free agents this year.
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MLBtraderumors article tonight says “Mets interested in Carlos Correa.” I would normally assume that is just a leak by Boras to keep his client’s name hot, but with the massive fraud Steve Cohen running the team I would not discount the possibility he will do it. What is another $350M when you are running a massive fraud and know it’s only a matter of time until you get nailed like Madoff? May as well live it up.
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I’ll get a copy of that book. I have spent a lot of time in Montreal, and went to Expos games from when I was 5.
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I hate that the Expos left Montreal, and I blame Loria, not the city. To me, the Nats are the same franchise as the Expos, just like the Twins are the original Senators, the Orioles are the Browns, and the Rangers are the expansion Senators. Moving cities doesn’t end a franchise, but changing city and nickname sure makes it hard to view the team as the same franchise. Still, to me those teams are all still the same franchises. But it’s not for me to decide.
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Is it weird that I read Jonah Keri's book "Up, Up and Away" about the Expos years ago and then kinda became a fan of a team that already hadn't existed for over a decade? (I don't think the Nats really count as the Expos franchise "now")
SodoMojoDojo on
December 13, 2022 10:44 PM
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Montreal deserves a team. Montreal has seen so much construction the last 10 years - every time I’m there they have new huge buildings, new luxury hotels, cranes all over the place starting new projects. Over 4 million people in the metro area. It is a different place than the city the Expos left, and they were crushed by an evil owner, not a bad city.
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If it was an expansion team and they were looking for a good city, no way in Hell Oakland would even be a top 10 candidate. They should have left Oakland years ago. That ballpark was so different before they ruined it for the NFL, and they have let it age poorly. It’s like they knew eventually Oakland couldn’t work, so why “invest” in making the ballpark viable?
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Aren’t they slithering out of town to get to Vegas? I don’t remember if that’s a done deal?? If they suck, attendance will suffer, they can blame lack of fan support when they leave. Win-Win.
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The As seem to love quantity over quality in their trades. Or at least over perceived quality.
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Seems like a complex 3 team trade with Contreras going to the Brewers amongst other players.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 12, 2022 4:15 PM
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Interesting. I feel like Contreras or d'Arnaud have to be on the move then. Can't imagine them rostering all 3 of them.
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I guess Murphy is a Brave now. Will be interesting to see the return and how they handle their catching situation now.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 12, 2022 3:20 PM
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My Bryce Harper prediction 60 games and $50 at auction.
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9 years left for Harper. How many games do you honestly think he plays next year? 60? 70?
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And Lindor - 10 years, $341M. Insane.
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Frankly it is depressing, They keep raising ticket and concessions prices squeezing the fans, raising ad revenue and tv rights in turn raises prices on consumer products and cable tv.
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 4:01 PM
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Bryce Harper got 13 years. 9 years left, how many games will he average over that duration?
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 3:56 PM
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Why single out Bogaerts deal? Should be the same thing with Turner. How about Judge?
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 3:51 PM
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MLB probably can’t get away with a strict rule against those types of contracts without collectively bargaining it. So the commissioner is stuck with the old “know it when I see it” problem. If everybody knows Boegarts’ contract is an AAV dodge and MLB lets it slide, if they cancel a contract with a bigger AAV dodge they will get arbitrated or sued for “arbitrary and capricious” enforcement of a vague rule.
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Yep and they’d do 15 or 20 years to keep the AAV lower if the commissioner would let them.
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Boegarts seems like an 8 year deal at $35M per, with three seasons added on to spread the AAV to avoid the luxury tax. Nationals used to do “deferred payments” a few million a year for many years. The 11 year deal seems like a deferred salary but over a shorter term. Anyway, I’d say Xander basically got $35M a year for 8 years.
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With the Mets pushing payroll to Ludicrous Speed, will they keep adding more$? If $400M+ is not a problem, why not $500M? They could add Carlos Correa to play 3B and Swanson to play 2B, moving McNeil to LF. What is to stop them from a $600M payroll?
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Somebody will wind up giving Swanson $150M. Trevor Story and Javy Baez both got that $ for being barely above average SSs. I think the economy of MLB is so far removed from any sense of actual value that it’s hard to logically analyze it.
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Some of these owners must be playing with Monopoly money. With the Senga signing, the Mets are up to $450m including luxury tax. I’m guessing based on prior Met payrolls that their breakeven is around the $150-200m payroll. Legit, smart, wildly successful financiers don’t spend money like this. Fraudsters do. Guys like Madoff, Epstein, and Bankman-Fried.
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 6:19 AM
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BTW, I think that Swanson is a barely above average SS, and I wouldn’t give him more than 5/$50.
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 6:11 AM
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Because it has to be a team on the coast.
Winnetka Cubs on
December 11, 2022 6:10 AM
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I’ll guess Red Sox will sign Dansby S. Defensive upgrade, should be a much smaller contract, and he is a fine hitter. Looking at his spray chart, I think a lot of outs might have bounced off the Monster for singles.
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Maybe both of them.
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Would anybody be surprised if the Padres sign Dansby Swanson or Carlos Correa next? They not only have limitless money, they also seem to want a shortstop at every position.
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John Heyman says if the Padres signed Judge to the $400M, 14 year deal they reportedly were offering, MLB would have vetoed it as means of artificially lowering the AAV
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Yeah if I was a Red Sox fan, I'd probably still be unhappy about the Betts deal.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 9, 2022 12:32 PM
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Red Sox spent $106M on Yoshida (probably a contact hitter with little power, defense or speed), $18M on Martin (a usually solid RP), and $32M on Jansen (an aging RP with declining velocity), and they traded for Hoy Park (a nobody whom the Pirates would have released). Meanwhile they lost 2 potentially decent RP in the rule 5 and lost Boegarts. Anybody else starting to worry about Chaim Bloom?
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Seems like Tatis Jr plays OF From now on.
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Yeah I would prefer Turner for 11 yrs $300 million over Xander for 11 yrs $280 million. Turner has been a little better at the plate, a good amount better in the field, and a lot better on the bases. At least the Padres finally got someone to agree to take hundreds of millions of dollars from them.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 8, 2022 12:47 PM
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I could see Turner doing what Robin Yount did - moving from SS to CF later in his career and maintaining his MVP level status. Yount won MVP award at both positions. Xander seems destined to move down the defensive spectrum less impressively. But who knows?
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Definitely. Turner's deal only $20 million more over the same amount of time. Trea almost a year younger, currently the better player by quite a bit, and I am guessing will age better.
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Phillies got the better deal with Trea at first glance don’t you think?
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Padres signed Xander - 11 years! AAV around $26M. They now have Xander, Machado, Tatis, Kim, and Cronenworth all capable of playing SS, and their top prospect is a SS. But I guess if you can play SS, you can play most positions.
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Where does the Padres’ money come from? If San Diego can run a $300M payroll, why can’t Pitt, KC. Tampa, et al afford even 1/3 of that?
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I guess possibly things like deferred money, opt outs, no trade clauses or possibly offering a larger deal but spread out over more years and therefore lesser AAV could all be factors as well but still would be disappointing to miss out on two top targets in a row like that.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 7, 2022 11:48 AM
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I also saw the Padres reportedly offered him $400 million, and they reportedly offered Turner $342 million, maybe taxes are a part of it but seems like a decent gap between their offers and what the players are choosing.
SodoMojoDojo on
December 7, 2022 11:42 AM
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Judge still a Yankee at 9 years, $360,000,000. Picked a good year to hit 62 home runs!
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I dig the lottery so far - it won't totally fix the issue, bc the baseball draft is such a crapshoot, but so far so good. Of course, I'm also a Twins fan, so maybe I'm just biased right now haha...
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