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I didn't say anything about his comparison to Bruce. The ETA doesn't seem aggressive at all if he continues to do what he's doing and the Reds don't sign a FA RF. Personally, Winker reminds me a little of Markakis offensively.
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If you'd like to wager on his wOBA for the month following his MLB debut versus Jay Bruce's wOBA over that same month, assuming full health, I'll be happy to bet any sum you'd like.
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So he's going to hit well enough to not only follow the aggressive promotion schedule you have him on and as if that's not enough, he's also going to be better than a two time All-Star in his prime on the day he makes his MLB debut.
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Finish 2014 @ AA. Begin 2015 @ AAA. Seems reasonable he could debut next July.
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According to who? You? Sending a 20 year old with half a season of AA experience straight to the majors would be quite a developmental leap.
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You realize Winker is in AA now and on track to debut next season, right?
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Would be hard to settle the bet since one will be in the majors and the other won't have played a game above AA
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i will take the other side of that bet
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Gauntlet thrown down.
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Jesse Winker will be better than jay Bruce in 6-12 months.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 24, 2014 11:06 AM
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Paying that much for replacement is fine;of course trading for it isn't necessary bc by definition replacement level abounds. But that's what Jed said anyway re him being a throw in, which is entirely proper
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I'm not sure what that does with Iwakuma's pricing, but there are values abounding this year so far.
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This isn't a great example, but last year the top 30 SP's average salary was $24. This year it is $16 (or 33% less for the math challenged)
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My gut tells me that 4.6 P/IP is slightly above replacement value right now. But at just $3 you aren't really paying him to be much more than that, are you? #5 and #6 SP's have value at the right cost, just like in MLB
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You asked someone to take the position that Iwakuma is more valuable than replacement level. While I have no idea what RL is currently, it's apparent he's a better investment that some elite pitchers. In other words, he has value.
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Nice comparison to greinke, of course completely irrelevant to the replacement question
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Interesting. Somewhat related, offense has accounted for 56% of the league's total points YTD (44% pitching), which is exactly what it was at the end of last season.
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At the end of last year, the differences were: hitters #1 (Miggy) to #30 (Ryan Zimmerman) was 477; pitchers #1 (Kershaw) to #30 (Ryu) was 563.
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Fun fact this morning: The difference in points from the #1 hitter (Tulo - 600) and the #30 hitter (Hanley - 418) is 182. The difference between the #1 pitcher (King Felix - 783) and the #30 pitcher (Tanner Roark - 456) is 327.
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So this means I won the trade?
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 24, 2014 9:35 AM
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Yes, just saying in one of those two pitchers (one example), you're getting what you pay for (and 4.6 P/IP is probably slightly over replacement). Iwakuma is a full 1.0 P/IP above Verlander, for perspective...
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So what you're saying is that Iwakuma is replacement level. It's just that he's replacing enricos $40 pitchers...
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 24, 2014 8:28 AM
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Iwakuma YTD: 4.63 P/IP ($3) vs. Greinke YTD: 4.8 P/IP ($37). Over 200 IP, that's an advantage (Greinke) of 34 points, or exactly 1 point per dollar in salary of one from the other...
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Hey, I'm in fourth place, that's kinda cool.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 10:00 PM
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I think he's worth keeping next year, unlike Lee and Ortiz. That was the extent of the analysis.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:59 PM
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FWIW, given Lee's recent comments after his first bullpen and Ortiz's limited position eligibility, I had zero interest in either of them.
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Iwakuma's FIP this year is almost identical with 2013; declining Ks but also lower BBs. Doesn't rely on velocity but is there a reason we think he'll be better at age 34 than 33?
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Which is why I had two weeks of crickets before Trey made a push.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:47 PM
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And Aramis is red hot but ancient and headed for more and more injuries. That's like not such an amazing haul.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:46 PM
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The other crazy thing that Trey mentioned a while ago that should have kept this thread from even happening: cliff Lee is just about worthless. I was actually benching Ortiz on my horrific team,
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:45 PM
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He was above replacement in 2013, injured for much of 2014, aging but not the type to decline steeply at that age, doesn't rely on velocity.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:43 PM
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OK that's interesting re: him just being a throw in -- but not really talking about the trade any more. Is he above replacement level in 2014? Or 2015?
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He was definitely above replacement level in 2013. Seems to be replacement level in 2014. And given his place on the aging curve, what would people bet on as a 34 y/o in 2015?
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Iwakuma was a throw in. I traded that trio primarily for Winker. Who is going to be good.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:30 PM
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Iwakuma averaged 5 P/IP last year. Pretty sure that isn't replacement level. And before you say "what about this year", keep in mind replacement level may be better in 2015 than top prospects like Bradley, Zimmer, Syndergaard, and maybe even Bundy
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I mean, I'm not that married to my reasoning where I would do that. But that's my point exactly. The time to submit compelling offers is before the guys get moved.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:25 PM
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now that we're done talking trade, I'm more interested in someone taking the position that Iwakuma isn't a replacement level SP and showing me why b/c I'm not seeing it
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This thread is pretty amazing. A three week window to submit offers would seem to be the very definition of maximizing value. It's like it's only a problem when I actually accept the best of a few bad offers.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:23 PM
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No matter what EP or I says, you're going to say you prefer Winker or whatever his name is.
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Why should we post hypothetical offers for a trade that's no longer available in a public forum? If you wanted to know what you could get for the package you dealt, the time to figure out is before you deal the package.
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If you couldn't or wouldn't beat it, this means that I maximized value for the three players. In which case the communication failure is basically moot.
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:18 PM
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unrelated to the trade. He just seems to be the perfect replacement level pitcher in this league, which I didn't know until I actually started looking at his numbers and those of FAs
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Durham and Enrico - I'll pose this question again. What specific package would you have used to beat Winker / Iwakuma?
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:15 PM
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Really? We're now hyper analyzing Iwakuma vs quintana? What is the point, exactly?
Eckfords ⚾ on
June 23, 2014 7:13 PM
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Nice -- that actually just made me realize its not Winkler. How about that, I had no idea.
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I like Winker. I like saying Winker.
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Last 3 years, Iwakuma 1908, Bartolo the Manatee 1875, 416 IP v 435 -- http://goo.gl/pwp7rj
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Here's Iwakuma v. QUintana v. Kyle Lohse (also a FA): http://goo.gl/qC3EkM
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Quintana is actually worth 7.6 WAR over that period versus 5.9 for Iwakuma -- not sure why since only an 11 IP difference; maybe b/c Iwakuma's BABIP and LOB% are crazy on the lucky side or maybe bc of Quintana's home park?
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Easiest way to execute trades and avoid any confusion: COMMUNICATE. That is all.
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