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Hey guys -- Can we talk about Hisashi Iwakuma for a minute? Over his last three starts, he has a 1.42 FIP with a 25:0 K/BB ratio. Crazy right?
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 13, 2014 9:08 AM
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Feel better? I enjoy doing that.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 13, 2014 8:42 AM
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The real pressing question is whether Knights did the multipost to make WAR feel better...
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Utley was $19 when cut, signed at $22 though - not sure about 40+ types
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 11:45 PM
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Utley was $19 when cut, signed at $22 though - not sure about 40+ types
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 11:45 PM
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Utley was $19 when cut, signed at $22 though - not sure about 40+ types
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 11:45 PM
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There were a few. Utley went higher. Be interesting exercise.
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 11:43 PM
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Last call on Kinsler. On the move...
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Don't think there was anyone from my auctions, though panda cost 20, which was his cut price.
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Can anyone make a quick list of players that cost more at auction than their cost at cuts? This conversation has me curious.
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And all I'm saying is a team would be next to crazy to offer much in the way of value for $25+ players held by a team that needed to cut near $500 in the offseason
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This is all speculation at this point. I have no idea which, if any, "superstars" will go for high dollar, etc. All I can tell you is my experience going into this season, with tons of surplus value, was that I was very willing to buy high $ players
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The risk isn't that just that you could pay $54 for a $50 player. It's that you may not get that player at all because three other teams are willing to pay $51 or more.
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There's no surplus value with Trout. Instead, you're paying top dollar for the player most likely to achieve a point level that is well above average. You pay $40+ for the players you think will best perform and compliment your surplus value.
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I disagree you're always looking for surplus value in the off season. You look for as much certainty as possible to build around the surplus value you've already attained.
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All that having been said....looking at my salary structure, I can see myself buying a pricey star or two in the offseason. Just not *over*priced.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 7:09 PM
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It's more that when you're talking about players $40 and up, the risk of letting them get cut is so low. You give up good players for "cost certainty," or you run the risk of paying $54 for a $50 cut player. The latter isn't so scary, and rarely happens.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 7:08 PM
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Whether it's a trade or an auction, you're looking for surplus value. So it's not so much that you shouldn't buy players who are going to be cut -- I've done that multiple times.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 7:06 PM
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To my knowledge Tulo played in CO all those years he averaged 743 points too
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And, because of the salary your team carries, other owners realize that no matter what their value in no vacuum, even if they were in some wild construction "fair", you've got to cut $450 or more (once Puig gets his allocation)
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I'm not arguing someone should buy Tulo, and I'm not arguing he hasn't been injured. Just stating he was drafted 4 years ago @ $47 and has never been cut
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Nelson Cruz doesn't play SS in Colorado either.
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Nelson Cruz has averaged 125 and 718, respectively. Nobody thinks he's worth $55 because of a monster first half either
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Over the past 4 years, Tulo has averaged 109 games and 743 points. How is that locking in sure fire MI production? Nelson
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I was told Cano was a sure-fire keeper at $47. That's one team's opinion. It's safe to assume he won't turn a profit @ $47, but there is a lot to be said about having your MI locked in at a high level before heading into the draft. Just my guess.
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I have no idea what Tulo would go for in auction, but I'm not sure I can say he won't go for $54. He hasn't been cut in 4 years despite his injury history and has never been better. I won't be about profit for some teams, it will be about cost certainty.
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Right, but let's say Tulo has zero profit potential at $53. Why trade for him when he has literally zero chance of going for $54 at auction? It's about not giving up assets when you don't need to. Cap space is an asset heading into the auction.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 4:29 PM
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In the winter, when you find yourself with a) excess cash, and b) undervalued assets, it may be less about turning a profit than securing something worth paying for. There's little profit on superstars at the auction either, assuming you get one
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Right but in that cutdown equation, the guys who have $20 surplus value aren't getting cut. It's the expensive guys who have zero profit potential.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 4:22 PM
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If the guy costs $30 but is worth $50, why not acquire him before he's cut? You'd likely have to pay full price at auction, so whatever you deal the cost of saving that money.
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 3:56 PM
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Of course there's always a chance someone will
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I can't imagine anyone giving up anything meaningful for any of the guys on your team over about $25 simply because there's no way for you to cut $450 without dumping most of them.
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Speaking of high priced players, sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words - Check out Kershaw on the SP P/IP chart. Insane how good he is: http://bit.ly/1s7ATuC
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there* type faster than I think sometimes
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 12:50 PM
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Can't imagine much of a market for those guys if their is high likelihood of them hitting auction. I certainly won't be the guy.
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 12:50 PM
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Wouldn't deal for $50+ player not named Trout in offseason though. Ended up regretting most recent high priced offseason acquisitions, will likely be more cautious going forward.
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 12:49 PM
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I would deal for a guy that is likely getting cut if I'm reasonably sure they'd be difficult to acquire at auction - builds some cost certainty.
Caimans 🐊 on
July 12, 2014 12:48 PM
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It won't surprise me one bit if there is a market this off season for a $58 Kershaw, $51 Felix, $55 Miggy, $55 Tulo, etc.
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I traded for a $53 Miggy because I had a ton of cap room and cheap assets to build around. Knights, WGW, PPI, and others could be in that situation in 2015
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The cleared cap space was nice though. Thanks for the memories, Carlos.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 12:41 PM
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I traded for a $50 CarGo in the offseason. That was freaking amazing for my 2014 chances.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 12:41 PM
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I would agree to that. If a team is way over the cap in the offseason, anyone who trades for his $20+ is doing him a favor, basically making the cutdown decision easier on him. Good $20+ players being available "for free" at the auction is a given.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 12:31 PM
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There are a ton of examples of players some of us thought should be cut and others valued enough to trade pieces for the upcoming year. Everyone values players differently. If there's one lesson I've learned from this league in 4 years, it's that one.
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You're saying those teams shouldn't trade for higher priced players in the off season to help them become competitive the next season? Whether I cut a player or not, some teams value having the player before the auction
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The more teams that are competitive, the less likely you are to see teams carrying $800 in salary, and I think more competitive teams is in the interest of the league long term
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Agree. But hopefully other teams won't bail the teams out that do that, and over time we will have higher number of competing teams each year...
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in the race in July, you can't get overly concerned about salary. You just collect as many RoS points as you can.
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 12:15 PM
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No idea what my end-of-season salary figure was last year, but I certainly didn't care what it was. Gave up a number of great contracts for worse contracts -- Waino for Felix, Goldy for Miggy, E5 for Price. All of them hurt me this year, but if you're
Eckfords ⚾ on
July 12, 2014 12:14 PM
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I don't know why you keep getting defensive, nobody questioning what you're doing
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Tulos productivity has never been in question, the reason he doesn't go for this prices is his durability
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