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Why are you the only team that will average 4.6+ P/IP? I randomly picked three teams for the spreadsheet and all three averaged that over 1,000 IP. I was very generous giving B. Anderson 150 IP @ 5 P/IP
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There's no closer you want more than Drew Pomeranz? I forgot that guy existed.
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I don't necessarily want to pick sides in this argument, but I'm thinking of unowned rp who could realistically get saves or holds this year and it's not a long list.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 9:11 PM
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I don't expect I'll love all 41 players in 2 months
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even the RP that are found mid season still carry the same turnover risk and dont keep the job all year
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the values I like right now are obviously going to evolve over time. Mark Teixeira changed 2 days after the draft
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so you arent going to pick any RP up during the season because you have such good values already with no available roster spots
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The bigger question I've got is how some teams think they're going to get more than 4.6 P/IP over 1200 IPs...
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how many closers have lost jobs or been injured already?
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how many RPs have been cut since the draft?
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there's no closer I would want right now instead of any of the pieces on my roster.
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I think its playing with fire since several other teams also have cash to spend and thinking youcan still find value at RP during the season
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you may not need to have 5 RP at this point, but to say that having $5 less right now and a good closer would be very beneficial
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I'm not really hoping to get anything in particular. But I certainly did forego the right to purchase RPs a month before Opening Day and instead bought value elsewhere
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Enrico...you said that those of us that already have RP have foregone opportunities because of those salaries, but you have also foregone something as well by saving cash after the draft to hopefully get someone off waivers
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I don't have to predict which RPs will emerge now. But I'll see them when they emerge
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that's not true. I just don't have any now.
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I'll take your bet if you can also tell me right now who the unowned RP are that will emerge into the top 10, because that's essentially the crystal ball you're left to play with
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Boggs was about as perfect an opportunity to land an RP at a low cost - just $5 (no prospect, no trade, etc), and you didn't bid.
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I'm not sure what that proves. It's not that other teams may have the wrong RP to succeed in '13, it's that you aren't playing with any at all.
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I'll still do my side bet though, you pick the top 10 RPs this year, I'll pay you $XX for every right, you pay me for each one wrong. And you can pick whatever other position and we'll do it there too with me picking
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There are no projections - this is what happened in 2012
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no, the point is that you put blind faith in RP projections that are demonstrably wrong at a far greater rate than projections at every other position. It's all good though, it helps me.
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Oh boy. Here we go again.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 8:35 PM
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Oh boy. Here we go again.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 8:21 PM
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The point is showing that if 2012 were to repeat itself in 2013 but Strasburg, Anderson, etc were projected for 2013, there still isn't enough P/IP to be made up in using only SP to overcome the impact of bullpens by other teams
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Untrue
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Didn't use any RP projections except Capps. Used Rivera's 2011 since 2012 was lost. All I did was take 2012 numbers for players and show the points. Other teams would have a 500-1000 point advantage in pitching by utilizing RP instead of using SP only
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and again, going back to my post on 2012 projections, RP projections are the most useless of all projections...
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Mariano Rivera did not throw 60 IP last year
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Sad news about Johan. Not that it is completely surprising, but still sad that he may be done.
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I put the spreadsheet together pretty fast so let me know if you see any errors. All the numbers, including the bullpens, for the other 3 teams are actual from '12, not projections
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and of course none of this adds in the cost of what is foregone by rostering 10 RPs
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just silly. The only theory I can think of is because there are so many RPs out there and they are so often cut and signed that maybe they make for fun conversation.
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or half of the difference between an elite SP stand and a staff full of 4.5 produces
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the top 50 RPs in baseball last year averaged 7.66 P/IP. And didn't average 70 IP. There are just so many holes. The delta between "good" and "bad" bullpens is essentially the difference between Buster Posey and AJ Pierzynski
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jeez, now that I look at your spreadsheet numbers, you predict the 3 teams to post 300-350 IP at 9.49, 7.90 and 7.89 P/ip
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Trey, your example also assumes I spend 1/3 of my innings on replacement level production, which would be about as dumb an idea as is out there
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what you guys are doing is dedicating roster spots and $$$ to the quest for an extra 500 points while ignoring the points you lose at SP and other positions
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solid argument. Except that it makes no sense since we prove year after year the difference between average projected elite RPs and average "other" RPs is basically zero
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Not to beat a dead horse (what else do we really have to do until opening day?), but here's a random (crude) example of why the "no RP" strategy doesn't work IMO: http://goo.gl/OXGDa
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Looking at my roster, right now I'm really going to need about 800 innings from my relievers
Caimans 🐊 on
March 28, 2013 7:19 PM
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I'm expecting more than 300 but agree that it will be difficult to get to 350.
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I'm anticipating something in the range of 1200/300
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seems unwise to bet on much more than 300
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well there were about 35-40 RPs last year that threw 70 IP, so given 5 spots and not knowing in advance which days RP throw, you'll have to mix and match and get pretty lucky to get all the way to 350, but maybe it's possible
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I'd be happy to get 350 IP out of my RP, but I don't know if I will be able to do that.
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What do other teams expect their innings split to be between SPs and RPs out of curiousity
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Anything to pass the time until there are real games with real players... :)
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Trying desperately to suck me into another crazy RP discussion
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