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Does a $55 Verlander, $54 Kershaw, $38 Bumgarner, and $31 Freeman count as inflation?
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not that I disagree that Desmond and Harvey were insane
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CC Sabathia 30, Headley 23. I'm not seeing league wide inflation
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Adrian Gonzalez 27, Jesus Montero 12, Carlos Beltran 16, Paul Konerko 9
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there were just as many bargains as crazy overpays, and I'm not sure 64 Trout qualifies as inflation/overpay, he just had a top 25 season in baseball history
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oh yeah...and a $32 Harvey
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there was definitely inflation...I have a $64 Trout and $38 Desmond to prove it. Just because you didnt overpay for anyone doesnt mean it wasnt present
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I'd like to think that more teams will stay in the race longer this year but maybe not...
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:35 PM
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Ack.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:34 PM
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I don't necessarily want to pick sides in this argument, but I'm thinking of unowned rp who could realistically get saves or holds this year and it's not a long list.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:33 PM
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and it will be clear relatively early in the season that some teams can't win in 2013 so there will be limited competition for those types of guys
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that's what you said about auction inflation and it didn't happen
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The price goes up in season too as owners are scratching for points and/or trying to keep them away from others
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But now that we're in closer carousel territory.....I think you hafta pounce on those Boggs type situations. There won't be that many of those, and the later in the season they happen, the less valuable they are.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:13 PM
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Up to this point I've been a fan of the Enrico strategy, because I know last year I felt the urgency to get RP and auction and ended up utterly wasting about $15-25.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:12 PM
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By a team that scored 17,000 points last year, so no dummy.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:11 PM
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Yup.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:10 PM
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Not saying he is WORTH $28, just a data point that other high-scoring leagues attach some importance to elite closers.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:10 PM
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Whoa. The owner kept him at $28?
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FWIW, Craig Kimbrel is owned at $28 in my other LW league. He got mad arbitration $$ thrown at him.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:09 PM
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Agree with Jed. That's why I thought I'd see Boggs scooped up by Enrico. It would have only cost dollars, and Boggs has the needed recipe of opportunity + skills + winning team
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Good behavior.
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Enrico, the jury finds you GUILTY for ignoring the importance of RP in Ottoneu format. Your sentence will be to finish no better than 4th place. However, if you are right and we are all wrong, you can earn additional spots in the standings for
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I totally understand being hesitant to buy RP at the auction, since the prices tend to be inflated, but you have to own them and run them out there, I think.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:06 PM
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Yeah there are elements of both your arguments that I'm not quite grasping, but in general, guys with a legit shot at 60-70 8 P/IP innings are guys I want.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:05 PM
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I don't see how there can be any doubt that you need high-leverage RP to win. The only question is whether and when you can pick them up midseason. No rotation is so good that it can't use 8 P/IP boosters.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2013 10:03 PM
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I would love to believe you, but you have not given a decent explanation as to how you will acquire enough innings. I don't think anyone is fully on Trey's side either with his spreadsheets
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also b/c I don't follow your subtraction but that's ok. Anyway, I swear this time I'm done clearly nobody believes me and that's fine.
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WGW is right - while it's assumed that you'll start your top 3 horses every inning, this also assumes you'll need to start Anderson and EJax for every single IP, which may not be good on some matchups
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no, because most teams look like they'll be much farther behind than half a point over those 1200
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given that model, it is unsurprising their numbers come out better.
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In other words, every other team has to find 200 IP above replacement (1500 - 1000 - 300), while your team has to find 500 IP above replacement (without RP)
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Trey assumes that their "other 450" innings aren't replacement level, they're ARoldis Chapman level
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Outside of your top 5 SP, I don't see any other pitcher beside Capps (RP) that I'd be confident in giving me above replacement level innings. The difference is that every other team can count on at least 300 IP of above replacment IP - with their RP
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and something the other contenders are unlikely to do as well...you're not going to intend to do it, but it may happen and everyone will get bad starts and stretches
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a half point/inning lead Starting is the same as 2/IP over the 300 RP innings
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here's the simplest way I can explain it. We all get 1200 SP innings. Figure out what people get from those 1200. Then figure out what people will get from the other 300
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again, you assume I'll run 450 IP of replacement level SP out there. I'm an idiot, but that seems unlike something I'd do...
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Doing that, the breakdown is Syndicate: 8560 pts, Durham: 8237, Chiefs: 8206, Enrico: 7385. So there's still a big gap there that can't be made up without RP
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So in four leagues, I own only 14 players multiple times. 12 of them are in two leagues, and 2 in three leagues.. Trevor Cahill and Dayan Viciedo. Oof.
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I don't follow your argument, but a better way to look at the spreadsheet is probably to give each team the same P/IP for all their remaining IP. So 4.5 x 100 for Syndicate; 4.5 x 62 for Enrico, etc.
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Yep, it's impossible for me to account for injuries to RP. You are correct, which is why I used 2012 numbers instead of 2013 projections. The only thing I can account for is that you have approx. 60 IP for your bullpen right now
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but as I said earlier the bigger problem with your spreadsheet is you completely ignore the things like Rivera and Wilson missing the season and posting zero
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315 IP at a rate comparable to Strasburg or Verlander. Seems simple enough.
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yes, he "laps" me but putting up 315 relief inning at 8/IP, and then another 130 relief innings at 5.6 P/IP. So there it is, (a) get 315 IP at 8/IP, (b) get another 130 IP not from one of your top 5 SP and with only 5 RP spots that are already delivering
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For example, it may not be accurate to say that Durham will average 5.61 P/IP for the remaining 160 IP he needs to get to 1500, but it might not be that far off with better, longer IP from Parker, Haren, and a 6th or 7th RP thrown in
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There is a problem with my spreadsheet though...I multiplied the "remaining" IP by the avg P/IP for each time (combined SP + RP) to get the addtiional points they would likely accrue. That's not entirely accurate though. Need to fix.
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I think you have the best starting top 3, but the spreadsheet clearly shows that isn't enough. You average almost half a point better than Syndicate in 1,000 IP from your 5 SP, but he laps you in the rest of the innings with his bullpen.
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I won't be the only team above 4.6/IP at SP, but I'll likely be averaging half a point to a full point (depending on the staff) more than other teams, which is 600-1200 points over 1200 IP
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yeah, Drew Pomeranz will probably suck and get cut. I'd still rather have him than an RP. The post hype prospect thing I think is still exploitable in this league
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