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If everyone had the same strategy then there would be no marginally talented 2B left for me to own.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 1:28 PM
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I'm sure I come across as a jerk much of the time on this board, but I will say that it's good to have owners with different views, strategies, etc in the league. It's good for the balance of the league and a big reason why our league is successful.
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WAR Horse's trade block has been updated!
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 10:44 AM
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He was a lot better than I realized in his time with the Cubs last year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 10:16 AM
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Yeah I like all three of the players I gave up, but with my roster makeup I had resolved to not keep any of them. Strop is kind of blah but at $4 with a chance to close, I will keep him.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 10:15 AM
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quite the return for a RP.....two prospects and a decent bench bat
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...but if I decide to keep Sano, great. But he gets crushed in arb and goes to $20 to start 2015, which is the season I really needed him for and where his surplus value is most usable. That value gets crushed in arb quickly.
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Arbitration is a factor in prospect evaluation too. Let's say Sano comes up 9/1/14 and hits .230 but belts 8 HR in Sept. In a tight race I'd rather have a Trout, who is cut in the off season...
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Financially there is a big difference between carrying a $2 prospect and a $9 prospect.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:53 AM
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I'm not saying you should always trade top prospects for rentals. Just saying if you think it legitimately increases your chance to win to acquire a great productive player for a prospect or two, you should be ready to pull the trigger.
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I think another big unstated challenge in this league is getting elite prospects before everyone else knows they are elite.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:52 AM
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I tanked 2013 and hope to be competitive again this season. There are other example that suggest you can rebuild in one year. Prospects come and go; you can always get more
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Definitely created some internal division within the clubhouse. That's why Kinsler had to go.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:46 AM
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I had to deal with PR issues of starting Ryan Gennett over Ian Kinsler down the stretch, but we were vindicated in the end.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:45 AM
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The Nationals 2012 season is a good analogy. You play the game to win, and even more so in fantasy b/c you don't have to deal with the PR issues of a Strasburg injury or the difficulty of selling tickets, etc. Cliche, but "flags fly forever".
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Right now I only have 9% of my roster occupied by such players, and even that % is slightly higher than I would like it to be.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:30 AM
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That is a *huge* percentage.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:27 AM
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If 38% of your roster is occupied by players who won't play in 2014, I don't think it's mathematically possible to win in 2014.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:27 AM
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Last thing I'll say about prospect debate: not a dig at Enrico, just a polar opposite strategic opinion.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:27 AM
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hindsight is always 20/20 but it makes a difference to learn from others choices
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They played the future card and didnt even make the playoffs the next year and they were not even worse on paper. I think you have to win if you get the chance
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this is kinda what I compare it to: I don't think for one second that in the Natinals could do it all over again, that they wouldn't let Strasburg pitch 40 more innings and in the playoffs when they were so good two years ago
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But in a tight race, which it was at the time, I would package Buxton/Sano/Taveras for Shane Victorino if I thought it would net me 200 points.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:11 AM
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I actually think my Matt Holliday acquisition gave me more of a net boost than my Miggy acquisition. The Aug/Sept production I was banking on from Miggy didn't really materialize due to his injury.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 21, 2013 9:09 AM
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I would not even consider trading a top 5 prospect for a $70 Trout in July or August.
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Overall I'm with EP here. I just don't think the marginal gain is worth sacrificing significant future assets even if that gain is predictable, which it isn't.
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I don't think I made any trades for straight rentals during my championship season. I remember declining several offers that probably would've made me better because I didn't think I needed the extra points to win.
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Just 2? ;)
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Damn take a vacation to the mountains and have to scroll back two pages to catch up.
Caimans 🐊 on
December 20, 2013 11:37 PM
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Title tip #26: If by September you don't have at least $50 in cap penalties, you're doing something wrong.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 10:36 PM
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you surely wouldn't drop them for replacement guys rather than trade them for studs
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but you only have a limited number of roster spots...the prospects taking up a spot and not contributing whether it is two or 11 would have to be dropped to be replaced by the average guy on the waiver wire
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And what is available on the wire. Any time someone wants to he can add 4+ ppg or p/ip
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Your go to move is always "prospects are Zero" but you ignore the delta between the "given" scoring of stars (which ignores risk of stars)
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You're ignoring marginal value. What would price and butler have given over replacement? It wasn't thousands of points. If you define replacement level as zero of course those guys look better
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Not trying to cry sour grapes because a trade was rejected. Just saying that this time last year the perfect prospect combination of talent, cost, and ETA even failed to materialize. There are always exceptions, but prospects are chips.
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Prospects fail all the time, even good ones. Even more rare, they hardley ever "peak" out of the gate. If I can trade a top prospect for Mike Trout for a chance to win again, I won't blink.
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It could be June 2014 before either of that tandem scores MLB points
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Let me give you a hindsight look on prospects: One year ago I offered D. Price and B. Butler for Bundy and Taveras (who were ranked #1 & #2). Maybe it was rejected for $ reasons, but one side of the equation scored 1750 points, the other zero in 2013.
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Remember that Felix/Waino trade that I got flamed for. It was a dumb trade, but at the time I ignored $$ because I thought it would give me an edge. Even if only 50-100 points.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:44 PM
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I think that point-edge-per-month argument make sense, but a lot of pennant-race trading is somewhat irrational. You're just looking for any slight edge you can get.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:43 PM
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It's just a false choice you're setting up, the idea one decision can make or break. Of course your risk profile changes during the season but smart teams strike the right short long term balance
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Not saying I wouldn't love to own Carlos Correia, but I would rather own Eddie Butler because of ETA.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:39 PM
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But the idea was that a) I wasn't devoting a lot of $$ to prospects, b) I was focusing on prospects who were 100% certain to make 2013 impact, c) their immediate ETA would boost their trade value.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:38 PM
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Entering last year, my main prospects were Cingrani and Eaton. You may recall my snarky comments about Keith Law ranking them in the 90s of his top 100.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:37 PM
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Just my two cents on the prospect debate:
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 20, 2013 9:36 PM
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This has nothing to do with any of the discussion going on right now, but a buddy of mine is a senior scout for the Angels. Interesting thing he said: "Mike Trout will get a $400MM contract. No doubt about it." I was in denial at first...now, I see it....
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I'd like to get Durham's take on this because he's been in it every year and has made tough choices to throw in his cards and to hold at different stages. I'm pretty sure he'd agree you throw in all your cards (wisely) if you have a legit shot to win.
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Not counting on Sano or Baez in 2014 (icing on the cake), but 38 of my other players will contribute positive points in MLB this season. That's what I'd consider depth.
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Like WGW said, the league is as competitive as ever. 200 points could easily be the difference. Let's assume that Carlos Correa is the #1 prospect going into 2015. If I can pick up 200 points in August/September and a chance to win, he's gone
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