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• Hey folks! Another great regular season is almost in the books.
  
  With one week left into the season, 5 of the 6 playoff spots are locked up.
  
  Michael clinched a bye this week, and I all but officially did so as well. Brent, Andrew, and Rachel have clinched playoff spots as well. That leaves Emilio, Peter, Lucas, and Brad competing for the final playoff spot.
  
  Peter and Lucas play each other, while Emilio and Brad are playing the two top seeds. Any of the 4 teams are eliminated with a loss. This is about an interesting final week as we could have hoped for, as a lot is riding on these 3 matchups.
  
  Meanwhile, Brent, Andrew and Rachel have nothing to play for in this final week other than likely meaningless playoff seeding, and they are each playing teams already eliminated. Hunker down and get ready for the playoffs folks! It's going to be exciting.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Dec 3, 2024 5:18 PM
• Another draft in the books! Remember to start those slow bids now!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Aug 16, 2024 11:47 PM
• Alrighty! Now that the cut deadline has passed, a few housekeeping items:
  
  (1) Let’s all remember that the league operates on Eastern time! That means deadlines occur at 11pm central. I’ll make an exception for today if anyone else has final cuts they wanted to make. In future, the 11pm deadline will be strictly enforced barring league-wide discussion and approval.
  
  (2) Pay up! Renew your dues for the league. The site seems to have improved on clarity for where and how to pay, so it should be self-explanatory.
  
  (3) The draft! For now, I want to focus on August 12-16 and see if people are available for one of those days. If none of those work, then we can look at a later date. For now, text me separately which of those days do or do not work for you.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Aug 1, 2024 12:08 PM
• Also, please let me know if you do not want to come back next year.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Jan 2, 2024 4:23 PM
• Another season in the books!
  
  Congrats to Lucas for winning the championship. Aaron fell just short as runner-up, and Travis grabbed 3rd.
  
  Payouts will be put into the site's new prize tracker some time next week and should available for withdrawal. More information can be found on the End of 2023 Football Season thread link at the top of this page.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Jan 2, 2024 4:12 PM
• Alright folks! Another great regular season in the books, and now the playoffs begin.
  
  Aaron took the first bye and #1 overall seed, while Peter stole the second bye from me.
  
  The first round matchups are:
  
  #3 Jonathan v. #6 Travis
  #4 Lucas v. #5 Andrew
  
  Good luck everyone!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Dec 12, 2023 12:24 PM
• Reminder that you have 20 days until the cut deadline.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Jul 11, 2023 12:25 PM
• They should add a confirmation step to make it less likely, since we're all (laywers and non-lawyers alike) guilty
  Off To Your Grandma 👵 at Jun 28, 2023 10:18 AM
• Guys. When engaging in trade discussions, and particularly be careful to read what you are doing. The big green button that says “accept” does not mean “send message.” It means accept. I’ve made the mistake too, and it’s making me question what kind of attorneys we are…
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Jun 27, 2023 5:58 PM
• Please veto/cancel the trade that is going between me and Jonathan. The notes show I intended to reject it and hold on to Burks. I don't know how it accepted.
  King in Ft. Worth at Jun 27, 2023 5:45 PM
• If y'all could veto/cancel that trade - my notes indicate I'm not wanting to accept and I clicked the wrong button
  Off To Your Grandma 👵 at Apr 4, 2023 12:04 PM
• Lucas elected to remove $1 from Jonathan Taylor and put it on Justin Jefferson.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Apr 1, 2023 4:18 PM
• I had to manually put in Lucas' arbitration since he did not put $1 on Peter, which invalidated his allocations.
  
  To double check I did everything correctly, you can go to the arbitration results page and go to each team's page to see what Lucas' allocations were supposed to be and double check that I put them in properly.
  
  Once Lucas tells me the $1 to put on Peter's team, I will do that. So Peter, heads up that one of your players will still go up $1.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Apr 1, 2023 3:54 PM
• Also, here's some data on how arbitration went. As a disclaimer, this could still change before midnight and will change at least a bit because Lucas has to reallocate a bit to hit every team with at least $1.
  
  Most Dollars Allocated
  
  $76 - The Morris Almonds (Emilio Longoria)
  $73 - JDalicious (Travis Ayala-Cormier)
  $68 - The John McWhorters (Jonathan Lehrmann)
  $64 - A Team Has No Name (Michael Adams-Hurta)
  $64 - Scranton Stranglers (Aaron Gregg)
  $63 - Jay Cutler Fanclub (Brad Williams)
  $59 - Soulja Bois (Bennett Moss)
  $55 - Anti-Racists (Alex Kykta)
  $54 - King in Ft. Worth (Brent Dore)
  $51 - Torts Illustrated (Lucas Peterson)
  $47 - Waddle and Jefferson (Peter Graff)
  $46 - Andrew Nelson
  
  Most players hit
  
  16 - The Morris Almonds (Emilio)
  16 - The John McWhorters (Jonathan)
  13 - A Team Has No Name (Michael)
  10 - Soulja Bois (Bennett)
  10 - Scranton Stranglers (Aaron)
  10 - King in Ft. Worth (Brent)
  9 - Jay Cutler Fanclub (Brad)
  9 - JDalicious (Travis)
  9 - Andrew Nelson
  8 - Torts Illustrated (Lucas)
  6 - Waddle and Jefferson (Peter)
  5 - Anti-Racists (Alex)
  
  Higher allocation per player hit
  
  11 - Anti-Racists (Alex)
  8.1 - JDalicious (Travis)
  7.8 - Waddle and Jefferson (Peter)
  7 - Jay Cutler Fanclub (Brad)
  6.4 - Scranton Stranglers (Aaron)
  6.4 - Torts Illustrated (Lucas)
  5.9 - Soulja Bois (Bennett)
  5.4 - King in Ft. Worth (Brent)
  5.1 - Andrew Nelson
  4.9 - A Team Has No Name (Michael)
  4.75 - The Morris Almonds (Emilio)
  4.25 - The John McWhorters (Jonathan)
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Mar 31, 2023 5:31 PM
• Hey folks! Everyone has completely their arbitration, with the except of Lucas, who just needs to attribute $1 to a couple teams. As a reminder, every team has until midnight tonight to make any changes, if they want to change things based on how other teams' allocations have played out and how free agency has gone (I changed mine quite a bit last night).
  
  Once arbitration is officially over tonight, we begin the very fun part of the off-season. For the next 4 months, cuts and trades will be open. For cuts, this means that you can cut players without the usual half-salary penalty. If you cut a player they will immediately go into the draft pool and cannot be claim by another owner. Their salary will be reset to 0 and your cap hit will similarly be reduced to zero for the player. Just be careful to not drop someone that an opponent would have been willing to trade for!
  
  And that brings me to the best part of the off-season: trades! Until the cut deadline on July 31, you can make trades. Start thinking know about your roster holes, whether you want to go all-in for this next season or keep playing with the future in mind, and whether you think you have players that are overvalued or other teams have players that are undervalued. And send trade offers! This is the time of year that most trades happen, and it's where Ottoneu really shines. The only difference between trades right now versus trades during the season is that cap space CANNOT be loaned right now.
  
  Once the keeper deadline hits in July 31, two things happen, again both relating to cuts and trades. Any players cut after July 31 will incur the same half-salary cap penalty that they incur during the off-season. Additionally, trades are frozen again until the draft. So the only way to acquire players between now and the draft is through trade. Any player that is currently a free agent or becomes a free agent by being cut can only be added through the draft.
  
  Oh, and once the cut deadline hits, everyone must be back under the cap penalty. Right now, you can make transactions even if you are over the cap. Once the cut deadline passes, you cannot make any transactions until you cut enough players to get back under the $400 cap.
  
  Cheers!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Mar 31, 2023 4:49 PM
• Hello everyone! Hope you guys enjoyed a perfectly fun and not-at-all controversial Super Bowl! The good team won and the bad team lost so all is well.
  
  And now, the best part of this league begins! Arbitration begins in two days! The rules can be found here: https://ottoneu.fangraphs.com/football/help/rules. In short:
  
  Arbitration allows teams to add dollars to players on other teams in their league
  Every team has a $60 allocation budget to utilize as they see fit
  Every team must give every other team in their league at least $1 and no more than $8 in additional salary
  No player can be allocated more than $4 of additional salary by another team ($44 league max)
  
  And that's all there is to it! After that, almost every team will be over budget, and you will have to start making trades and cuts to get under the cap!
  
  Like I said, this is truly where the fun begins, but this is also where the league starts to differentiate from one-year leagues and really commit down to the dynasty path.
  
  So, with that being said, if there is any that did not enjoy this league and does not want to commit to this next year and beyond, please let me know now. It will be easier to replace you know than it will be in the future.
  
  Thanks so much, and happy arbitrating!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Feb 13, 2023 3:28 PM
• Alright folks, hope you are ready for the post season! Round 1 gets started with a group of UT law grads, as Emilio (The Morris Almonds) plays Bennett (Soulja Bois) and I (John McWhorters) play Aaron (Scranton Strangers). Brad (Jay Cutler Fanclub) easily earned the top bye, while Travis (JDalicious) barely squeaked by me for the last bye. Enjoy the week off--and while you scoreboard watch, remember that because of re-seeding the bracket is not set in stone. So you won't know your opponent until both matchups are decided!
  
  Happy playoff season!
  
  And for those of you not in the playoffs, remember that now we are not far away from the best part of Ottoneu leagues: the off-season!!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Dec 13, 2022 4:07 PM
• I see that some previously owned players have been sitting on the waiver wire for over a month now. As a reminder, when you drop a player, their salary is cut in half and that half amount counts as a cap penalty against you.
  
  Because you can re-add players 30 days after you drop them, you can re-add dropped players and then drop them again, cutting their salary in half yet again and cut the commensurate cap penalty in half as well. You can use this repeatedly to shrink cap penalties throughout the year.
  
  For example, if you drop a player at $38 their salary becomes $19 and their cap penalty is $19. You can re-add them again in 30 days (if someone hasn’t already) for $19 and then drop then again. Then their salary becomes $10. If in 30 days still no one else wants that player for $10, then you can re-add and drop again and get the penalty down to $5.
  
  As a reminder, if at any point another owner adds the player in question, then your cap penalty for that player is completely wiped out and you don’t have to worry about that player anymore.
  
  You can see which players you have cap penalties for by clicking on your team’s roster page and scrolling down to the bottom right side of the screen (below IR list and above incoming and outgoing loans). It also says the date you last cut them so you can know whether you are eligible to re-add them by starting a new auction.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Nov 17, 2022 7:49 PM
• I have some injured guys, particularly Hall and maybe Kupp, that are going to be very valuable pieces next year. I’m in win-now mode, so if I’d be willing to part with them for win-now pieces. So if you want a future-focused deal on some of those guys, reach out!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Nov 15, 2022 9:42 PM
• Imagine having Joe Mixon this past week and still losing. OUCH!
  Off To Your Grandma 👵 at Nov 8, 2022 10:14 AM
• Alright folks I’m seeing 3 people with invalid rosters. This is the time of the year that if you haven’t fully understood the ins and outs of the roster and cap rules, your mistakes could start adding up and creating a mess. So please reach out if you have any confusion. On the one hand, I’ve already said I’ll help correct any mistakes that are made this year based on any misunderstandings of the rules. At the same time, I don’t want to just go in and fix things and have people still be confused. That’s not fun for anyone. So please reach out so that I can not only fix the problem but also clear up confusion over any rules!
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Nov 5, 2022 1:12 PM
• I got bored, so decided to do some fun insights into how the season is going. I took all of the current scores and calculated the average and standard deviation for each team. This gives you insight into how much variability a team has in its scoring. Who is a boom or bust team? Who is fairly consistent? I then did some statistics on it to determine what each team's win probability is for the season, some insights into those, and some insights into what types of players are key to success based on what condition you consider the most important for success: average score, or high ceiling.
  
  To balance it out, for any team that forgot to sub in players who are on byes (or didn't set a lineup at all), I picked the best players on their bench to fill in gaps and adjusted their score by 0.75, to account for the chance that you didn't make the optimal decision that week being 25%.
  
  How's it looking? Here's the predicted teams, records, and their average odds to win against all opponents:
  
  John McWhorters: 12.5-1.5, 89%
  JDalicious: 10.1-3.9, 72%
  Soulja Bois: 8.4-5.6, 60%
  The Super-Duper Bestest Friends: 8.4-5.6, 60%
  Scranton Stranglers: 8.1-5.9, 58%
  King in Ft. Worth: 6.9-7.1, 49%
  A Team Has No Name: 6.9-7.1, 49%
  The Morris Almonds: 6.2-7.8, 45%
  Waddle and Jefferson At Law: 5.3-8.7, 38%
  Anti-Racists: 4.6-9.4, 33%
  Andrew Nelson: 3.8-10.2, 27%
  Jay Cutler Fanclub: 3.7-10.3, 26%
  
  So, who is overperforming and who is underperforming their statistical win probabilities so far?
  
  John McWhorters - Overperforming, 100% WR
  Jdalicious - Underperforming, 60% WR
  Soulja Bois - On Par, 60% WR
  The Super-Duper Bestest Friends - Underperforming, 40% WR
  Scranton Stranglers - Underperforming, 40% WR
  King in Ft. Worth - Underperforming, 20% WR
  A Team Has No Name - Underperforming, 40% WR
  The Morris Almonds - Overperforming, 60% WR
  Waddle and Jefferson At Law - Overperforming, 40% WR
  Anti-Racists - Overperforming, 40% WR
  Andrew Nelson - Underperforming, 20% WR
  Jay Cutler Fanclub - Overperforming, 80% WR
  
  Many of those who should statistically be doing well are underperforming, while those who should statistically be doing poorly are overperforming. Big shout out to the Jay Cutler Fanclub for seriously overperforming their statistical likelihood. They've already won more games than they should have.
  
  What's causing the variation? It's likely the deviation that we're seeing in scores for many of our teams. The average standard deviation in scores as a percentage of the mean is 18%. Meaning your average teams score will be +18% or -18% of their average score.
  
  The following are the most inconsistent teams, meaning they have a large difference in points per week, compared to their average score. Their deviation from their mean is noted below:
  
  The Super-Duper Bestest Friends - 32%
  A Team Has No Name - 24%
  King in Ft. Worth - 24%
  Waddle and Jefferson At Law - 24%
  Jay Cutler Fanclub - 23%
  Scranton Stranglers - 19%
  Anti-Racists - 19%
  
  The following teams are our most consistent, meaning they perform closer to their average score. Their deviation from their mean is noted below:
  
  The Morris Almonds - 6%
  Andrew Nelson - 9%
  JDalicious - 10%
  John McWhorters - 14%
  Soulja Bois - 16%
  
  How should you interpret these results? Well, if you're playing consistent teams, you can expect them to perform about the same week over week. Sometimes a bit better, sometimes a bit worse, but generally they won't have giant differences in their scores. Meanwhile, the inconsistent teams may give you a confident win, or a defeating blowout.
  
  Putting that all together and into context, you can see why some teams are underperforming vs overperforming. Below shows each teams statistically expected range of scores based on the first 5 weeks of play. We would can say with 95% confidence that their scores should fall into the following range. This list is ordered based on average score, and the numbers represent their expected high - average - expected low.
  
  John Mcwhorters: 164.67 - 128.15 - 91.63
  JDalicious: 138.67 - 114.99 - 91.30
  Soulja Bois: 143.16 - 108.09 - 73.02
  The SDBF: 176.66 - 107.88 - 39.09
  Scranton Stranglers: 148.17 - 106.92 - 65.66
  King in Ft. Worth: 151.58 - 103.10 - 54.61
  A Team Has No Name: 152.84 - 102.97 - 53.10
  The MOrris Almonds: 113.62 - 101.01 - 88.41
  Waddle and Jefferson: 145.285 - 98.22 - 51.17
  Anti-Racists: 132.56 - 95.92 - 59.28
  Andrew Nelson: 110.03 - 93.11 - 76.19
  Jay Cutler Fanclub: 135.25 - 92.72 - 50.18
  
  This really helps illustrate the power of the boom or bust capability of some teams, versus the consistency, and how a team that on average scores really well can still fall victim to a team going through an outstanding week. Many of the teams scoring the highest, on average, have some of the least variability. This both caps their floor, but also limits their upside potential. Meanwhile, some of our lowest average points have the highest potential and the lowest floor:
  
  JDalicious's average score is 2nd best, floor is also 2nd, but their ceiling is fairly limited, at 8th place.
  Soulja Bois average score is the 3rd best, their floor is 5th, but their ceiling is 7th.
  Super-Duper Bestest Friends, meanwhile, have the 4th best average score, but they have the highest ceiling and the lowest floor.
  
  The John McWhorters are dominating the game. Their average rank is 1st, their ceiling is 2nd, and the floor is 1st, better than anyone else's. They've got the second highest upside potential with the lowest downside risk, and are on average scoring better than everyone else.
  
  The Jay Cutler Fanclub has had the best luck out of any team so far this year. Currently in 2nd place, with a 4-1 record. They're over performing expectations. Statistically they should win only 3.7 games this year, and they've beaten that number in just 5 weeks. Their score has gone up consistently the past three weeks, but their average score is in last place, their statistical ceiling is 9th in the league, and their floor is 11th - next to last place.
  
  
  
  For helping with waivers/trades/FAs. The final question I wanted to ask myself is what position, based on the draft has had the biggest impact in success by comparing draft grades to average scores so far. What types of players should you be targeting if you want to improve your average score or your ceiling. I analyzed in thirds - the top third of the league, the middle of the league, and the bottom of the league.
  
  
  If you want to improve your average score, your overall draft grade didn't matter much. The average overall draft grade only makes a difference between the bottom third of the league and the top two thirds. There was no difference in average draft grade between the top third and the middle third of teams. The top average scoring teams had a draft grade of 1.25 grades above the bottom third teams in the league.
  
  QBs have made the biggest difference in average score. The top third of all teams by average score had QBs that were 1.5 grades better than the middle third, and 1.75 grades higher than the bottom third.
  
  WRs have made the second biggest difference. The top third of all teams by average score had WRs that were 1.25 grades better than the middle third, and 0.75 grades higher than the bottom third.
  
  Ks have made the third biggest difference. The top third of all teams by average score had Ks that were 0.75 grades better than the middle third, and 2.5 grades higher than the bottom third.
  
  TEs have made the fourth biggest difference, but mostly between being in the bottom third versus the top two thirds. The top third of all teams by average score had TEs that were 0.25 grades worse than the middle third, and 1.75 grades higher than the bottom third.
  
  RBs have had the fifth, and worst difference between being a top third team. In fact, prioritizing RBs has almost had an inverse relationship to your success. The top third of all teams had the worst RB draft out of any group. The top third of all teams by average score had RBs that were 1.25 grades worse than the middle third, and 0.5 grades worse than the bottom third.
  
  
  If you want to improve your team's ceiling, your overall draft grade did matter. The top third of all teams by statistically potential ceiling had overall drafts that were 1.5 grades better than the middle third, but only 0.5 grades higher than the bottom third. Your overall draft only made a difference in being in the top third or the bottom two thirds, with little difference on where you ended up in the bottom two thirds.
  
  TEs have made the biggest difference in potential ceiling. The top third of all teams by average score had TEs that were 5.5(!) grades better than the middle third, and 3.5(!) grades higher than the bottom third. If you're wanting to improve your ceiling, getting a quality TE is key.
  
  WRs have made the second biggest difference. The top third of all teams by potential ceiling had WRs that were 0.25 grades better than the middle third, and 2.5 grades higher than the bottom third.
  
  All other positions there's no real noticeable trend between ceiling potential and quality of player from the draft. The top third had QBs that were 0.75 grades worse than the middle third, and only 0.25 grades better than the bottom third. For RBs, the top third's draft grade was even to the middle thirds, and 1.75 times worse than the bottom third. For Ks, the top thirds draft was 3.25 grades worse than the middle third, and only 0.5 grades better than the bottom third.
  
  Summarizing that, if you want to improve your average score, based off draft results the best players to prioritize would be, in order:
  QBs
  WRs
  Ks
  TEs
  RBs
  
  If you want to improve your potential ceiling, your priorities should be, in order:
  TEs
  WRs
  QBs/RBs/Ks
  
  Based off this, the most valuable players in our league so far this year have been WRs and TEs, followed by QBs and Ks. RBs have been the least valuable players.
  
  Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. Hope you have a great rest of your season!
  Off To Your Grandma 👵 at Oct 13, 2022 1:18 PM
• Apologies, that looked much better formatted when I typed it.
  Crispy Bois at Sep 6, 2022 11:21 AM
• I went ahead and threw our draft into a machine for analysis. Here are the grades:
  
  Team Name QB RB WR TE K Overall
  The John McWhorters B B- B A+ B- B+
  A Team Has No Name B- B B A B B+
  Jay Cutler Fanclub D B B A B B-
  The Morris Almonds B A+ D C B B-
  Soulja Bois B B B- B- A B
  The Super-Duper Bestest Friends B C B B- D C+
  JDalicious A+ B- B- B- A B+
  Scranton Stranglers B- C B C B B-
  Waddle and Jefferson At Law B- B- B D B B-
  Andrew Nelson A+ B B- B- F B-
  Anti-Racists B B- C- C B- C+
  King in Ft. Worth B B B- A B B+
  Crispy Bois at Sep 6, 2022 11:20 AM
• Draft officially set for tomorrow, Friday, September 2 at 7PM central.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Sep 1, 2022 7:42 PM
• Next Thursday does not work for me. Otherwise, I can make them all work.
  King in Ft. Worth at Aug 31, 2022 12:04 PM
• Friday is best for me
  Off To Your Grandma 👵 at Aug 31, 2022 9:02 AM
• I cannot do Wed the 7th. Hello and worst of luck to all!
  Scranton Stranglers at Aug 30, 2022 10:08 PM
• Friday is the only day that isnt great for me
  Crispy Bois at Aug 30, 2022 5:21 PM
• The other thing to be aware of is that because this is an Auction league that is deeper than most, the draft will take a while. Expect 3-4 hours.
  
  As a reminder, you will want both roster space and cap space left over after the draft, as your $400 is used in both the draft AND in free agent acquisitions. All free agents must be acquired for at least $1 via the blind binding acquisition system, so if you don't have cap and roster space, you won't be able to make any free agent adds.
  
  So, it is perfectly normal to leave the draft with cap and roster space still available. If you don't want to be here for the full 4 hours, you can spend aggressively early and get out early. Just be careful on over-spending: remember, if you draft a player and then decide to drop him, you are hit with a cap penalty equal to half his salary, until someone else adds him or until the end of the season (when all cap penalties are wiped away).
  
  This draft will be by far the longest one. In future years, because so many players will be kept from the previous year, we will not have nearly as many players available or roster spots to fill. Expect future drafts to be at least a full hour faster, usually between 1-3 hours.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Aug 30, 2022 4:51 PM
• Hello everyone!
  
  This is the best way to communicate with everyone, so try check it every so often and feel free to post anything here.
  
  Not to spam this everywhere, but please let me know which drafts dates DO NOT work for you:
  
  (1) This Friday, September 2
  
  (2) Monday, September 5
  
  (3) Wednesday, September 7
  
  (4) Thursday, September 8.
  
  The 4th option would be opening night, so we would likely be drafting during the Bills/Rams game. If we can at all avoid that, let's try.
  I'llCutAllMyBestPlayersNxtYr2 at Aug 30, 2022 4:36 PM