-
I think the big thing with Silver isn't just that he predicted the states, but he predicted the total vote share in each of them and was pretty damn close.
Caimans 🐊 on
November 7, 2012 12:08 PM
-
I'm not saying it's a win for Silver as much as it is a win for statistical analysis in general starting to count more than the gut feeling of these pundits who thought it was actually close
Caimans 🐊 on
November 7, 2012 12:05 PM
-
Silver's model looks like it will have correctly called all 50 states and most of the senate elections again - anybody who says 'big fucking deal' gives me the impression of sour grapes. He was getting hammered for weeks, and he was right.
Caimans 🐊 on
November 7, 2012 12:04 PM
-
There may have been some polls indicating a win for Romney but the overwhelming majority had Obama winning. That's what 538 does, aggregate ALL the data rather than some crank's poll that oversamples one demographic.
-
If 50% of America thought Romney had a good chance to win, 50% of America wasn't paying attention.
-
Silver's model is entirely based on polls. So is Princeton Election Consortium, which has had Obama as an overwhleming favorite for a while. There wasn't anything in the poll data that suggested a Romney win.
-
Take Silver out of the equation for a minute. Virtually ever other poll in America had Romney in a dead tie with Obama going into last night, so yes, close to 50% of America thought he had a good shot to win.
-
What's amazing is that for the last few weeks people have legitimately believed Romney had a shot at winning the election. People who disagreed with Silver were misled by some false sense of momentum that wasn't backed up by numbers.
-
NC was never really in doubt for Romney. It would have been an upset if Obama carried it, not the other way around.
-
What's amazing is that for the last few weeks people have legitimately believed Romney had a shot at winning the election. People who disagreed with Silver were misled by some false sense of momentum that wasn't backed up by numbers.
-
Silver's model didn't force him into a single ballsy / controversial EV prediction. Not that that's his fault, the model is what it is. I just don't see how that amazes people.
Eckfords ⚾ on
November 7, 2012 8:00 AM
-
Personally, I would've predicted Romney wins in two out of OH, FL, VA, NC. I would've been wrong, but any of those would've been upset picks at long odds.
Eckfords ⚾ on
November 7, 2012 7:58 AM
-
Silver basically predicted Obama would carry all the states he carried in 2008. Big fucking deal. He predicted that BO would win the states he was supposed to win. I'm still not getting the statistical wizardry here.
Eckfords ⚾ on
November 7, 2012 7:56 AM
-
Surprisingly (or not), Nate Silver was pretty much absolutely correct.
-
Silver now saying 90+% chance of Obama victory. Romney win would definitely gut credibility.
Caimans 🐊 on
November 6, 2012 1:45 AM
-
Josh Hamilton ends up in Philly. Amaro racing to have the most expensive 100 loss team in history 2-3 years from now.
Caimans 🐊 on
November 5, 2012 3:06 PM
-
Anyone care to speculate on where they think Josh Hamilton might end up? Big off season wild card
-
Wondering what will be closer (and more contentious) - the vote for POTUS or the vote for AL MVP...?
-
well I guess that's that then.
-
Basically the only argument Romney has that he's going to win (based on the poll numbers) is that the pollsters aren't talking to enough Republican voters. Romney is not going to win.
-
How could you argue with rigorous analysis like "Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail."
-
http://goo.gl/UjrMF
-
Too bad that trade didn't go through.
-
Dont get me wrong, I'm happy with the trade but its not like Haren is a top 3 starter (ok maybe for the Cubs he is) with his back issues and lost velocity
-
Someone make an argument where it makes sense to trade Haren for Marmol if you're the Angels...
-
From anonymous tweeter: "Silver's timeline has turned into a mixture of passive-aggressive snark and wishy washy caveats." Couldn't agree more. Guy is just plain immature.
Eckfords ⚾ on
November 2, 2012 7:33 AM
-
Agreed. Though then I got bored a few days ago and voted anyway. But there's no reason to until then.
-
I haven't voted. Don't really see the need to until the 14th.
-
Has everyone voted in arbitration? Another two weeks before we can trade, etc. Should we just start announcing each day who we voted for per team? Anything to pass the time...
-
I think Darwin Barney would make a terrible president
Caimans 🐊 on
October 31, 2012 10:56 PM
-
But what is your stance on Darwin Barney?
-
I don't necessarily trust Nate Silver but I trust him more than I trust him more than I trust Obama or Romney or their people.
-
I am prepared to accept as fact that he is an assclown
-
I should point out that none of that has any impact on whether he is or is not, in fact, an assclown.
-
Barney got the nod from the Fielding Bible, though the crowdsourced "fan scouting report" system (http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index5.php) puts BP, Galvis, Cano, Pedroia, and Espinosa higher.
-
Darwin Barney is an assclown.
Eckfords ⚾ on
October 31, 2012 1:12 PM
-
the idea that Mike Trout didn't get one is kind of laughable though
-
Darwin Barney led all 2B in UZR . . .
-
Once this BS voting period ends, I am going to need to move a lot of prospects to field a real roster next year. Just FYI.
Eckfords ⚾ on
October 31, 2012 10:31 AM
-
I read the words "Darwin Barney" and then stopped looking.
Eckfords ⚾ on
October 31, 2012 10:30 AM
-
Gold Glove voting a joke.
Caimans 🐊 on
October 31, 2012 9:27 AM
-
+1 FMW
Caimans 🐊 on
October 30, 2012 8:02 PM
-
If politicians and pundits hate Nate Silver then he must be doing something right.
-
In related news, Javier Baez leads the AFL in home runs.
Eckfords ⚾ on
October 30, 2012 5:07 PM
-
Count me in the 100% that think this long drawn out arbitration timeline is frustrating and boring...
-
Count me in the 40% that think Romney is, and will remain, in the lead. Most polls assume democrat turnout to mimic the historic high of 2008. I don't think that's accurate; likely much lower this year.
-
http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/30/why-pundits-and-politicians-hate-nyt-election-forecaster-nate-silver/
Caimans 🐊 on
October 30, 2012 3:22 PM
-
It is boring, but if he is as right again this year as he was in 2008 and to a lesser extent 2010, he's obviously on to something.
Caimans 🐊 on
October 30, 2012 3:22 PM
-
+1 to needing vote-off to end. Also, wish Silver had stuck with baseball. Loved his stuff at BP. I'm with Jed that regardless of his results, a complex system to aggregate a bunch of stupid polls is boring as hell.
-
And Romney having a huge hill to climb in terms of electoral votes is something I could've told you. With no statistical modeling.
Eckfords ⚾ on
October 30, 2012 3:17 PM
Previous 50 messages |
Next 50 messages