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270/350/400 at SS are like Zobrist/Reyes numbers, those are impact numbers
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One look at my roster and its pretty obvious I like collecting SS. Don't have too many impact guys but should have plenty of cheap, useful options in a few years to let me spend freely on those guys that will have impact. That's my strategy; it may fail
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B. Miller doesn't have to be impact; I think that was Jed's point. If he can reach .270/.350/.400 with 15 SB in three years ill take it. How many $7 SS do that in this league? He's a role player at a premium position that should be a nice option in '15
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Beltre would be HOF material if he retired today, without a doubt. He should definitely go in as a Mariner.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:31 PM
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Brad Miller is ok, but made AA at 22 years old, that's not a typical path for impact players
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maybe PEDs, but bottom line is that guys that come in and produce at 20 in the majors are the true superstars and he was one that arrived early, that's why so many people focus on age/level in evaluating prospects
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he's going to wind up ahead of Brooks Robinson and maybe near Chipper with 3000 hits and 450 HRs: http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/SgSDg
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The odds of Beltre having used PED's in the past is like 1000% so that also plays into his not quite getting his due.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:24 PM
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Yeah like if someone offered me a $10 Buxton for a $3 Miller, I would have to seriously ponder that. Strange as that sounds.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:23 PM
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I dug into his numbers a year or two ago its astounding given his age and under the radar-ness (relatively)
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Beltre is a HOF lock, he's already over 60 WAR, and he's likely to get to 3000 hits
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Beltre is pretty much a HOF candidate. I think he'll remain productive and the decline will be gradual
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Yep, agree with that point about the value of non-elite prospects contributing value in this format. That why I wanted B. Miller after trading Feanklin; better shot to stick at SS. Better OBP skills = Ottoneu-friendly
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I tried talking FMW into a Beltre trade because he had the double benefit of dropping or trading Longoria and saving a ton of cash, but he didn't buy it. I love Longo but hard to see how he's more than twice as productive as Beltre, considering price.
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Another thing about elite / non-elite prospects is opportunity though. Stefen Romero is nowhere near elite, but in my view his path to MLB PT is extremely clear, so I'd value him over several top-20 prospects. He's already destroyed multiple MiLB levels.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:17 PM
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Beltre is such a physically strong guy that I think the chances of him having a Michael Young-type season are very low. His bat speed is obviously just fine and he probably has 2-3 years left in the tank at a minimum.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:15 PM
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"prospects" is really not all that meaningful, b/c truly elite prospects are different than others
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http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
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Well that was my argument against accepting your pretty reasonable Beltre offers. The available 3B crop is pretty solid, and none of them should be astronomical in price.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 1:11 PM
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Regardless, I feel like I just dealt Beltre for Headley/Syndergaard/Adams
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6'5" SP with heavy sinking fastballs and BB rates under 2.5/9 don't grow on trees. I've seen several reports on developing secondary stuff, but lets be honest - prospects can be a crap shoot. Ill be lucky if 1/3 of these guys pan out
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Things change quickly in the prospect world. Scouting reports on Syndergaard are strong. I expect him to move up the lists in a big way this year. Not there yet but soon
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all the reports on Syndergaard are monster arm but no secondary stuff. but hey you can't teach high 90s heat so maybe he'll find it.
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it seems like people think there are about 100 top 15 prospects
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I expect Syndergaard to be a top 15-20 prospect this time next year. As for Beltre, he is a stud, but with Wright, Zimm, Headley, etc left I figure I can nab a prospect I like and get a 3B for similar price/production
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Shoeless Joes's trading block has been updated!
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Beltre is a freaking stud I woulda thought you could get more for him. That said, I myself wasn't willing to trade much for him. That age 34 can be the death knell for big hitters.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 12:51 PM
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I need a 3B but am toying with the idea of using Chris Nelson there. Age-27 season, Coors Field, etc., etc.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 12:49 PM
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A big year out of Syndergaard? Last I heard he wasn't even assured to be starter-quality.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 12:48 PM
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Risky move but man I love Syndergaard. Expect a big year. Now, how many teams, including my own, need a 3B? Most are pretty much set, right?
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I would argue that Bourjos's peak is 25 HR and 25 SB, which would seem to be worth more than the $10 he's currently priced at.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 11:58 AM
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Burn.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 11:49 AM
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If by peak you mean be priced at least three times his value, no
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Peter Bourjos will peak in the next two seasons. Want him?
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 11:45 AM
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Frosted Mini Weeks's trading block has been updated!
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To clarify: I'm looking for cheap players that "peak" or emerge in the next two seasons. Maybe that's a better way to define it
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I have a lot of things on my roster but premium prospects aint one of them.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 11:09 AM
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FYI - The Heyward/Myers trade should be an indication to all that I am still moving in the "rebuild" direction. Guys like Beltre, Butler, Choo, Hart available for premium prospects
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Are you changing your team name to FIP- Horse? Doesn't have the same ring...
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I still have major issues with hitter WAR because I think the formulas for defense WAR are suspect.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 10:21 AM
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Yeah WAR is pretty important for pitchers since it's cumulative and thus favors durable guys who go deep into games. Which is basically what you want in a pitcher.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 10:20 AM
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A guy in a chat I read made a good point: the term "elite SP" ought to be reserved for only those SP that can maintain top tier results over a sustained period of time. Suggestion was those who contribute at least 15 WAR over 3 years
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But yeah, the IP deficiency is important. Some pitchers are physically incapable of throwing 230 IP, and he might be one of them.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 9:52 AM
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I dunno, was talking with Bill Porter about this the other day. Fister is top-10 in FIP- over the past two years. Maybe I'm guilty of favoring that stat more than others, but to me top-10 in FIP- over TWO years is pretty much elite.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 9:51 AM
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Fister has only thrown 175 IP once in his career. Not a long track record, but then again affordable at $5
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Easy with the 'elite' tag, Hoss. Better than people thought? Sure. Definitely not elite...but certainly good.
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I have to say, I feel like my fangraphs site is showing me a different set of statistics for Doug Fister than it's showing everyone else. Unless I'm missing something, this guy is elite in a LW format, and all his comparables cost like $30-50. Mystified.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 27, 2012 8:00 AM
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Knights's trading block has been updated!
Caimans 🐊 on
December 26, 2012 2:45 PM
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WAR Horse's trading block has been updated!
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 26, 2012 12:17 PM
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We Got Wood's trading block has been updated!
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