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Punt on the entire 2013 season? If you're going to punt on the season it's in your best bet to get the very best players available at auction, period, b/c once the season starts you can trade them without the cap penalty you mentioned
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For what it is worth, I still like the idea of a hard floor and ceiling cap. We don't need any Marlins selling off all their assets, and we don't need any Yankees being paid to take Stanton off the Marlins' hands! /rant
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As oppose to before the auction, when they can only trade players. Can get more back for guys when you can pay their salaries as well.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 21, 2013 6:24 PM
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Re: Inflation, I don't think it's going to work the way you think it will Strikes. If it starts to, some teams may punt on 2013 after the auction, when they can trade players and cap space.
Caimans 🐊 on
January 21, 2013 6:23 PM
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Yeah, Crying. If you could grab that data, that would be clutch. An analysis of the past season's point breakdown maybe? That'd be super cool to view.
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That would really be helpful with regards to platoons and RP; I absolutely agree those guys are valuable, but hard to say how much without it broken out
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The data are there. I need to start hounding Niv for access..
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I wish there was a way to identify the points scored by player while they were active in your lineup.
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In auctionspeak, I'd expect a lot of comments like "Shit, I really didn't want to pay that much for AGon, but then again, there aren't many good players left..."
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WAR, the one thing you are missing out on is despite it being a good theoretical P/IP, there is a potential huge margin for error on WHEN to play those players. There isn't when you have 1 player (i.e. Choo)
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You could certainly argue those are the same things but once elite players are off the board, the teams with remaining holes to fill are going to have to react with the cash they have to spend
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In other words, I'd expect many cases where the "market" (auction) value exceeds the players "perceived" value in Ottoneu, simply because of scarcity and the number of holes teams still need to fill.
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Is Josh Hamilton perceived to be a $48 player for 2013? No, but if he goes for the same amount (2012), I'd consider that inflation, or a "price higher than his perceived value' (in a vacuum) simply because there are so few similar alternatives.
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The other thing to consider is that some of the teams with offensive holes to fill will be paying top dollar for Verlander/Kershaw/Bumgarner. I won't be one of them.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:14 PM
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Maybe I should be more specific: I don't expect crippling inflation (Jones won't go for $50), but I do expect inflation high on the elite end of the spectrum (and with RP), and to impact even some lower tiers.
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Choo is great, but if he gets 5.9 at $30, and Joyce/Ruf get 6.2 at $9, who do you want?
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:13 PM
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But Ruggiano will play every day, hit home runs, draw walks, and steal bases. Don't really care if he bats .270.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:11 PM
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Inflation could happen, I guess...? But if there's any owner set to inflate salaries it would be, and I can tell you I will not pay $50 for Adam Jones or $60 for Josh Hamilton. Salaries above a certain range can be crippling even if the player delivers.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:11 PM
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I absolutely believe in platoons; Joyce was a big factor for me last year, as were a few other guys down the stretch. But they are kind of like relievers; it could go at any moment, and new ones are always popping up.
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The theory that minor league dominance equates exactly to MLB P/G, even with platoons
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Yet Choo still managed to score 900+ points last year. How many OF did that? Ruggiano is 31 y/o and had a .401 BABIP last season...I don't think that's happening again
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You mean the theory that it's advantageous to play guys with 6.4 P/G against LHP in the games in which they face LHP?
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:07 PM
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When you take advantage of platoon splits it's just a night and day P/G difference. Hell even someone like Choo, can't hit LHP *at all*, so you're paying big $$ because he's a name, but he's useless in 30% of his games.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:06 PM
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If that theory were true guys like Matt Adams and Brett Walace would be $10+ players...
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I would take Dirks/Ruggiano over Victorino all day long.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:05 PM
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You're thinking in terms of name value like we're in a weekly H2H league.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:05 PM
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Really, why? I don't get that. Victorino is old and he sucked last year. Ruggiano just averaged 5.5 P/G while Ruf averaged 7.8 in AA and then 6.2 in MLB.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:03 PM
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Jed, you just made my point - you have money to burn on a scarcity of roster spots, so I'd expect you to go higher on top shelf guys. I expect others to do the same, thus = inflation
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That's why a guy like Victorino will cost significantly more; owners will pay up for guys they think have a greater shot at meeting expectations = certainty (sort of)
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Not accounting for PA; just accounting for perception of certainty. There is no real certainty, as any player can get injured, underperform, etc, but the amount of risk for a package of Ruggiano/Ruf is significantly greater than even a guy like Victorino
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My pitching is set and can be filled out with free agency and/or $1 bids. So that's $140 for 4-5 really rock-solid talents.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:01 PM
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In reality I have like 4-5 spots to fill, and am totally content to punt SS/MI since there are only like 10 good ones anyway. I spent numerous weeks in first place with Rafael Furcal at SS, Durham won a title with Yunel freaking Escobar.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 5:00 PM
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When I look at a Dirks/Ruf platoon, I see certainty, while you see "lineup slot to fill."
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 4:58 PM
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Right but you're making the mistake of correlating "guy who gets 550 PA" with offensive certainty.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 4:57 PM
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I should've added Uggla to my list; forgot about him
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plus there are a fair number of pretty interesting bats not on your list
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I'm looking to be middle of the pack heading into the auction to safely avoid Trey's curse.
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What other option do you have to fill the hole?
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Haven't reviewed the other rosters, but the 2 for me is off, I've only got one spot to fill. I also don't know whether other owners feel like the auction is the best place to fill lineup holes, I don't necessarily think that.
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As long as they have decent, servicable players at their positions, the teams with a more complete roster before the draft may have an advantage of avoiding inflation in those middle tiers after the elite players are off the board.
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That's a pretty steep cliff from Trout to Hart, and that's only 15 players, which means there are still 15 "holes" left; positions where owners will want to have offensive certainty. See why I think inflation will be a factor?
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Trout, Hamilton, AGon, Encarnacion, Hanley, Headley, Wright, Goldschmidt, A Jones, Zimmerman, Hosmer, Desmond, Beltran, Konerko, Hart (15)
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I see roughly 30 offensive "holes" on all 11 teams that owners may be motivated to fill on draft day. Now here are the top offensive players available (no particular order):
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SYN (2); MoPain (0); WAR (7); FMW (3); Durham (3); Chiefs (2); Crying (4); Shoe (2); WGW (3); EP (2); Knights (2); TOTAL: 30
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Well, I have $113 to spend on ONE player ;)
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Since we're doubling people's available cap space just for kicks....holy crap, I have $280 to spend at the auction!!!!!!!!!!
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 21, 2013 1:52 PM
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Yes, but that contract for Pujols is seriously backloaded. Let's revisit where he stands in 6-7 years...
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Another random thing...despite his unbelievably huge contract, Pujols will be the 6th highest paid 1B in 2013 behind Teixeira, Fielder, AGon, Howard, and Votto. Only $1MM more than Morneau.
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I completely overlooked CJ Wilson on Branham's team. Not sure if he keeps him or not, but if he does, he's down to $63 for the draft. Can still afford two $30 hitters.
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Top 5 highest paid 'LF' for 2013 are as follows: Wells ($24.6MM), Crawford ($20.9MM), Soriano ($19MM), Bay ($18.1MM), and Holliday and Hamilton (finally, someone worth it...$17MM).
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