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According to early projections, these are the players most likely to offer the best "value" in 2013 points/$: R. Vogelsong (298/$), A. Pagan (263), N. Aoki (253), C. Davis (246), R. Ludwick (243).
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So we're not drafting Feb. 1? : (
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 28, 2013 9:51 AM
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That's not a bullish HR projection as much as it is a bullish PA projection. Also known as a dumb PA projection.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 28, 2013 9:16 AM
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The bearish "ZiPs" projections have Wil Myes slugging 26 HR in '13. I actually hope that doesn't happen so that you guys don't allocate your entire arbitration budget to him for '14...
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Yeah the fan projections are kind of awesome. Although there is a huge "homer" tilt, i.e. teams with huge fan bases (Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox) tend to have much rosier projections.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 2:28 PM
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I h ave no data to back it up but I'm a big believer in the crowd-sourced FanGraphs "Fans" projections because my assumption is they take more variables into account. They have Prince for 34 HR, etc.
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Given his roster, I think he meant Prince.
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Price?
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too "different" from what he did in 2012.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 1:03 PM
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My problem is that all projections tend to be bearish to the point of being useless. I'm projecting Price for 38-45 HR this year, based on every-other-year trend, adjustment to AL pitching, 2nd half numbers. No projection system will do that because it's
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 1:03 PM
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Also agree the FA talent pool likely to shrink over time. Theoretically, the league champion may have to cut the most players each year if you assume they will be buying big contracts in season.
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I thought using projections to compare teams this year in our format should provide some interesting discussions. We'll argue whether bullish or bearish but it will at least give a point of reference to begin a comparison.
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Agree projections are arbitrary but let's also agree that everyone uses them, at least in some way, to form opinions about players. Gotta start somewhere.
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This may be the last year in our league with such an impressive pre-auction FA pool. My other league doesn't have nearly the talent pool with the new arb system in place.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 11:40 AM
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Bill James and Ron Shandler are the only ones that really go out on thin limbs.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 10:47 AM
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Projections are dumb because they just take the previous year's stats and move all the rate stats up or down .005 points.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 27, 2013 10:46 AM
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Uggla 710 pts; Teheran 405 (97 IP); Lawrie 810; Rasmus 560 (465 AB); Grandal 397 (265 AB); Volquez 779
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Hughes 601 pts (164 IP); EJax 885 (196 IP); Norris 428 (332 AB); Freeman 861; Hanley 785; Granderson 915; Lincecum 889 (201 IP)
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Let's see how some of these dropped players come out in the projections for our scoring format (RotoWire):
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The Syndicate's trading block has been updated!
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Lucky Strikes's trading block has been updated!
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Reviewing teams and took a deep look at Shoeless Joes. That team is underrated. Bullpen surprisingly effective.
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Carpenter Adams and Morris all surprising cuts to me. No real risk to holding on them, plenty of upside.
Eckfords ⚾ on
January 25, 2013 6:48 PM
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I'll take one...
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I'm in the ATL airport right now. I could make a fortune if I had some reversible "Upton" jerseys with BJ's number on one side and Justin's number on the other.
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Which of Brave's...err...Syndicate's OF finishes higher in the MVP vote for 2013: J Upton, Heyward, or B. Upton?
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Working to incorporate RotoWire projections into my Power Rankings this you to have more concrete data. Early thoughts: more parity this year than 2012.
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I will try to drop one more player per day until the deadline...the suspense!
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Ha!
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Is John Lackey a family member of yours or something?
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(realizing Napoli and Belt are pretty unpopular keepers)
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I'm done.
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I'm working on my Power Ranking spreadsheet...everyone just go ahead and cut the rest of your players... :)
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Well I have Gyorko and Rutledge who have better shots and much better numbers and no one else wanted him, so I will take the cap space
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Carpenter has a shot at the full time 2B job in STL
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Carpenter is going to be a decent utility guy with little power and no full time job....will be worth $3 on draft day, but I would rather have those $3 up front in case a bidding war on a full time player occurs (i.e. it will)
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Is Syndicate now starting the entire Braves OF?
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Kimbrel will love that project...well, the 50% of batters who DON'T strike out against him will.
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If anyone knows of a Boy Scout troop looking for a project, or if you'd like to volunteer, I will be moving the outfield fences in at Turner Field, now that I have all three OF. Thanks.
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Matt Carpenter was a nice 2B sleeper...
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And...27% chance the Nats win 100 games. Conversely, 70% chance the Astros lose 100 games: http://goo.gl/6hucs
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This is pretty crazy for me to think about...Uggla (30 HR potential) hitting 7th: http://goo.gl/dJ7wR
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Well since everyone else is doing it....
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While we're dropping 1B...
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That changes everything...
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There you go, enjoy.
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Get ready, I am going to add to the growing list of amazing 1B talent in the pool in 1 minute......
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Hoping to get Hosmer back in the fold at $40 instead of $41
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Yes but Freeman at $24 is not the same as Encarnacion/Hosmer/Goldschmidt at $24 or even $28 or $29. I can get more value paying $4 or $5 more for a 1B in the draft.
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The real bargains may come at 3B. Wright, Zimmerman, Lawrie, Headley, Hanley, Youkilis. I only see two teams that have to pick up a 3B, so the rest could be plugged as DH
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