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after looking at Buxton's stats, I don't think he has exactly been "raking" rookie ball like a top prospect should
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If Miller tanks this year I cut him and have lost nothing. If Buxton pulls a Bubby Starling it will be a tougher decision because his pedigree still says stud but the wait time to get there will be a real challenge.
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so as an "asset" his only value is to find an owner that somehow thinks he's going to turn into Jose Reyes or something
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I understand you're arguing Miller's more valuable because of price; it's just not correct b/c even if Miller produces at the majors (remember, he just made AA), his production is exactly what you can find on the waiver wire
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he's already been raking in Rookie ball; "best case" is not trading him at the deadline, best case is he's a midseason callup in 2014 and at 21 he's putting up big numbers. It's not as if a lot is blocking him in Minnesota
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Eaton is another great example. I'd rather have him too. He's cheap, and contributes now. The Twins stash guys in the minors for eternity anyway
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Until you overpay for Adam Jones after missing out on Trout!
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I'm not arguing Miller is more talented than Buxton; he isn't. I'm arguing that Buxton's price and proximity, compared to Miller, make him a less valuable current asset
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But that could be because Eaton is my best outfielder...
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 5:04 PM
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Price being equal I would honestly rather own Eaton than Buxton.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 5:03 PM
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Very best case scenario is that Buxton rakes (rookie ball) and you trade him at the deadline. But that doesn't change the fact that he's already paid more than Allen Craig and still 3+ seasons away.
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the reason I would spend on Buxton and not a sub-replacement level guy like Miller is that if I want a 600 point producer I can always add one
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If Buxton spends 4 years in the minors he won't be on my team any more because by definition elite players almost never debut at 23
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The other issue is that ETA is based more on opportunity and organizational philosophy than talent, which means it's difficult to scout or predict.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 5:01 PM
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I have no idea if Buxton will be worth $12 by 2016, but the odds are so long at this point that you'll likely want that $8 to allocate to a contributable player for a likely run in 2013.
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You can almost bank on Buxton spending 4+ seasons in MiLB. Why? Just look at Hicks & Sano, now going on 5 & 4 seasons. That means Buxton will be ~ $12 by the time he sniffs MLB.
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I vaguely remember someone asking mike Newman last summer which 2012 draft picks he would own in ottoneu, and his answer was "none."
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 4:58 PM
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your consistency is fine though, I don't suspect Brad Miller will be making his way onto your team
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I wholeheartedly agree that allocating $8-10 to guys who are several years away is a major handicap potentially. But I may be the most anti-prospect owner in the league.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 4:56 PM
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there is so much wrong with that, I'm not sure which is worse, the implied precision on prospect $ values or holding guys that aspire to be below replacement level
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so just so I know, hanging onto a guy who's ceiling is maybe league average is a good idea, but hanging onto a top 10 guy +$5 is crazy?
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give him to me instead...I'll even give you Kemp in return.
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...part of me wants to give Harper back to Enrico...
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I don't really know what to say after watching this: http://pulse.me/s/iI9lj
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Seattle prospects never ever hit though.
Eckfords ⚾ on
February 20, 2013 2:42 PM
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The other important factor is that EP is a championship-caliber team in 2013, so holding an $8 prospect 4 years from any impact is going to handcuff a lot of moves needed to beat other teams this season
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Have to assume you used a similar analysis when dropping a $9 Correa, who also probably won't see MLB till 2016
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My reservations about Buxton have next to nothing to do with his raw talent, more to do with his ETA, and everything to do with his price. Just using him as an example. If he were $2 there'd be no argument.
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yeah, well....but BA didnt win our league championship last year....
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Baseball Prospectus has 2016 ETA's for both Buxton and Fried. That's usually the call up date, so you're looking at maybe April 2017
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and that's kind of the point, the best prospects don't tend (though of course there are rare exceptions) to spend 4+ years in the minors
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well you may know more than BA, but their track record is pretty good
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BA doesn't have a single player's ETA listed later than 2015. Not realistic. I seriously doubt guys like Dahl and Fried are up by 2015 and they are on my team. Just too young, raw.
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but you are certainly free to try to pump up value of a guy who has a bunch of guys blocking his path to the majors, and whose upside is an average ML SS, which of course is a significantly below average Otto SS
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Baseball America has Byron Buxton's ETA as 2015. That isn't 4 years away, despite your attempt to diminish a top 10 prospect
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On whom am I going to spend $3 that gives more value than who I think could be a slightly above average offensive MI the minute he steps on the field? Proximity is key here.
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If I'm a competitive team I'd rather allocate $3 to a guy like Miller who could help soon than $8 to a guy like Buxton who is 4 years away from MLB and probably 8 from his prime. Buxton could be anything: B. Starling to BJ Upton. But risk + ETA + $ steep
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that's my point, there is harm, that is money you could have spent elsewhere, than hoping in two years he's a 600 pt SS (the average of the top 30 SS last year)
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True, which is probably why Miller makes more sense for me to carry than any other team. If he doesn't hit, I toss him back. No harm, no foul.
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I'm allocating $3 to Brad Miller this season
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but you're also ignoring his true cost -- it isn't $3 or $5, it's what else you could be doing with that money
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In other words, hoping Miller can become the "Josh Rutledge" of my team in two years. Rutledge wasn't highly ranked but has skills, versatility, and, most importantly, proximity at a cheap price
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That's exactly my expectation - hoping Miller can be an "average" SS for $5 when my team is next ready to compete. There's value in that, and also upside for more. He's a role player for my team at a weak position
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Miller is actually younger with more experience than G. Springer.
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Otto replacement level is much higher than ML replacement level
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Fair, integrating college into it can be challenging. Though the fact is that most guys who are going to have impact in Ottoneu aren't playing single A ball at 22. Miller certainly could be an average middle infielder for a few years
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Why do we discount the competitiveness and experience at the college level?
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Brad Miller is also a guy who started his age 22 season in single-A ball who plays in an organization crowded with infielders
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also apparently Jose Fernandez beaned Giancarlo or something
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In other great prospect news, Shelby sidelined with "shoulder tightness"...
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