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Not saying he's not an intriguing piece, just saying his 2013 P/IP is a small sample that includes a bunch of relief innings. 4.8 P/IP next year doesn't sound unreasonable, but projecting him to be a top-25 SP is tough b/c he hasn't done the workload yet.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:34 PM
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That 5.2 figure is a little disingenuous because a) he made something like 20 relief appearances, b) he was nowhere close to qualifying for any kind of rate leaderboard.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:31 PM
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Ross' P/IP rate (5.2) was 15th among all SP last season, higher than Sale, Greinke, Price, Verlander. I have him at 4.85 P/IP in '14, which is top 25 SP material, with upside. And he's my 6th or 7th SP...
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Murphy scored 5.8 P/G against RHP last season, which would rank 4th behind Cano, Carpenter, & Kipnis on P/G basis. Franklin was going to be platooned anyway, so just decided to do it with Murphy instead.
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Ross/Archer is tough to call. Murphy has higher floor than Franklin, but also lower ceiling, even for 2014. Interesting deals, definitely not very Trey-like (moving potential breakouts for veterans).
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:17 PM
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I agree it makes no sense to trade Archer/Franklin for Ross/Murphy...unless you platoon. Great long term value for WAR and PP, Inc., but I'm all in for 2014 and feel better with Ross/Murphy for this coming season.
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Who wants Jesse Biddle? Top-20 pitching prospect, would move him for cheap/decent/platoonable MLB position player.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:09 PM
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That DLsbury contract is such a Yankees thing to do. They'll be regretting it by 2016.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:05 PM
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Winning ottoneu strategy #46: Never trade for a Met.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:04 PM
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I sure thought Archer would be worth more....love that move for PPI
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Wow. That's not showing a lot of love for Chris Archer...
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:01 PM
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Better move him now Enrico...
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 9:00 PM
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Maybe SEA really will sign Cano...
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So much for waiting for the winter meetings...
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 8:43 PM
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wow...looks like Yankees just signed Ellsbury for what the Nationals got in Werth
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among other things, as I understand they only use 1 year of data versus the 3-5 the other systems use to regress, and there are other problems with their methodology that numbers guys can explain better than me
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the ESPN numbers are flawed, the StatCorner and Fangraphs ones are more accurate
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Park factors: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
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HR factors are better for hitters in COL from both sides of the plate and overall, not sure where you got the Minute Maid thing. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2013
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...and speaking of park factors, it looks like Beltran in KC may be just a slight bump, but a bump nonetheless. That'd be a surprise signing if it happens, but a cool one....unless KC is the next dumb trade and flip Butler for peanuts like Fowler, Fister
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I think I'm good with Fowler in HOU. Warmer weather, probably facing lesser arms in the AL West. Surpised to see the HR park factor higher in Minute Maid than Coors for 2013. I'll take it. Maybe this is the year Fowler stays healthy...maybe.
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Lucky Strikes's trade block has been updated!
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The Syndicate's trade block has been updated!
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More importantly, the Twins have settled on Josmil Pinto as their everyday catcher. BOOM.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 5:31 PM
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Beltran to Royals?
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 5:30 PM
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I mean I basically traded price for Jonathan Gray, so I'm not sky high on him. But he was more reliable than verlander and cheaper.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 5:29 PM
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That is a strong conclusion to draw on the basis of 12 starts
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You're looking at k's but not walks. If the new low-velo Price is cliff Lee 2.0...way more value than verlander. Or at least 2013 Verlander.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 5:22 PM
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There goes Fowler to HOU
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And the 2nd half BABIP #s, Price .281, Verlander .309...Again, I might agree that Price was better in the 2nd half. Not seeing anything that indicates yawning gaps between assessing Price at 40 or Verlander at 48
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Verlander 3.77/8.97
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Ignoring for a second the non-predictiveness of monthly or half splits, Price 2nd half 3.22 xFIP, 7.09 K/9
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I think you're comparing the two pitchers' 2013 stats, whereas I would be inclined to throw out all of Price's pre-dl numbers because he was playing hurt. If you do that, I imagine the p/ip difference is substantial.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 5:10 PM
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xFIP of 3.67 instead of 3.27, so that's worse; but has lost less FB velocity and maintained his Ks while Price's Ks and whiffs have dropped significantly; struggling to see the massive difference
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I wasn't devaluing Price for his dl stint. At least Price had a legit excuse for his awful stretches, Verlander was just plain awful.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 4:28 PM
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lol. Price at $40 is robbery for Kendrick/Mesoraco (192 IP at 3.03 FIP); Verlander is $20 overpriced at $48/218/3.27. Something doesn't fit there
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Verlander is maybe $20 overpriced.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 3, 2013 3:09 PM
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I like the hypothesis. Just be open to contra-evidence...
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Speaking of Verlander, he led that criteria in 2012 but missed it last year. He's an interesting case in value at $48. How many elite SP are going to be available in the draft? If he's the only one, his price could exceed $48...
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I think I can prove the cost of elite production is going up, but it will take me a few weeks, spreadsheets, and several beers to do it. That's my hypothesis, anyway. One of my off season goals is to create some sort of market value calculator
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The difference between Dec. 2012 and Dec. 2013 is coming from the fact that I was different SP that hit those (arbitrary) "David Price" marks. Not really apples to apples, but it's close.
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Speaking of fair-priced elite SPs, Justin Verlander is on the block.
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Of course, I think David Price at $40 is fair. Again, I'm just not getting why the price of an elite SP is more now than it was a year ago
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so, basically, because Otto Arb dollars got allocated to the highest scoring pitchers, there is inflation? Not following why the Dec 2013 Average cost of an "elite" SP is higher than it was in Dec 2012
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There are other variables, sure (roster needs, depth, injuries, etc.) but it seems clear to me that as more owners retain surplus value contracts, the prices for any available good players in the draft should increase.
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That MadBum / Profar trade is another good example. MadBum is elite (1 of 8) and is fairly priced (with upside). He should be kept at $43. Profar has to take a mammoth leap to earn his price (IMO). I'd rather have MadBum.
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Another way of saying it is that David Price's current contract is fair. However, since there are so few (none) elite arms available in the draft, his price would likely exceed $40 at auction. So, he still has some surplus value.
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Sure. For one, the avg. cost of those same 8 SP was just $30 before Nov. 15th. Two, only 5 SP hit those marks in 2012 at an avg. cost of $32.
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your statement implies that the average cost of an elite arm used to be less than that. Any evidence?
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Price has averaged 207 IP & 5.11 P/IP over the last three years. Only 6 SP hit that mark in 2013. If you open it up just a bit more to also include Felix & MadBum, the avg. cost for that elite arm is $37. At $40, Price is still very, very valuable.
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