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I feel like the 2013 WAR Horse proved that you can fake your way through MI as easily as any position in this format.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 9, 2013 9:47 PM
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I don't think anyone ever said that it was meaningless. Contract price always matters, but during the season it was discussed how much salary was appropriate to take on during a championship run.
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this is why contract price always matters
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Open to move Zobrist as well but I'm not in a position to take on salary and most if the good OF I was targeting are in Reyes' price range, not Zobrist. If the range for Reyes is 300-900 I'd wonder how many SS can score 900 points...
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Agree - asking price is high. I think $30 would be his cap at auction, more likely $20-25
Caimans 🐊 on
December 9, 2013 7:40 PM
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All of the elite SS are injury-prone jerks. Hence my preference for Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 9, 2013 7:08 PM
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At auction he would go for like $20-30. You have no idea what you're going to get from him. Could be 300 or 900 points.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 9, 2013 7:06 PM
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if you believe in his studliness, though, the upside is you can go ahead and move Boegarts and/or Zobrist probably for better returns
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Pretty much zero chance Reyes would go for $18 as a free agent. Considering price/production of guys like Tulo, Hanley, Desmond, Profar, Castro, etc, $32 seems like a bargain. I'm happy to hold if the market isn't there.
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Seems like the market is not agreeing with you that it's all already baked into his price
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If that were the case he'd be like $18. He's an ottoneu player with no HR, no BB, and declining speed.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 9, 2013 6:44 PM
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Age, health, etc. is already naked into Reyes' price.
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FWIW I have zero interest in any of the three. Expensive MI isn't how I roll.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 9, 2013 6:37 PM
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Reyes is also the oldest of the 3
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Clearly there is interest. But if you keep getting turned down, you'll probably have to lower your asking price.
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Last 4 years: Reyes ? 5.91 P/G in 512 GP; Tulo ? 6.76 P/G in 438 GP; Hanley ? 5.81 P/G in 477 PG. Tulo is ?getting offers? and Hanley received arb $, so clearly people are looking for SS. Reyes is the cheapest of the three and no one has interest?
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The perception of players is interesting when it comes to injury. I've shopped Reyes for a big OF bat over the past few days and most feedback is "too injury prone". Consider:
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Enrico Palazzo's trade block has been updated!
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Congrats Bobby Cox - HOF
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Lucky Strikes's trade block has been updated!
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Durham Tobacconists's trade block has been updated!
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Ruf likely to play every day and hit for power, Morneau could be great matchups guy vs. RHP and/or at Coors. Just can't afford them.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 8, 2013 1:09 PM
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If anyone has any interest in Darin Ruf ($8) or Justin Morneau ($7), I'm willing to deal them for cheaper ($2-5) SP, RP, or OF.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 8, 2013 1:08 PM
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Trey has fulfilled his offseason-long quest to trade Paco Rodriguez...
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 8, 2013 1:07 PM
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WAR Horse's trade block has been updated!
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 8, 2013 10:18 AM
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Life forced me to cut down in recent years, and I'm left with my favorite three.
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Ha, thanks. I?ll stay if you guys promise to go easier on my team during arbitration next season. Seriously though, I'll be in the league for however long I can be. I'm one of those guys that used to do 10 leagues every year.
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Nick (Chiefs) needs to make a commitment that if (when) he gets a job with an MLB team he stays in this league...
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I planned on going to the Winter Meetings again this year, but I already got a job lined up for next season. I'd like to still go, but I can't justify spending the money.
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It's possible but I don't think it's likely.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 8:04 PM
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You aren't worried about the situation clarifying itself into Nick Franklin, Mariners utility player?
Caimans 🐊 on
December 7, 2013 6:49 PM
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Few different offers for Franklin. He's available, but I'm likely to wait until his situation clarifies itself.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 5:09 PM
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So amped for winter meetings. Anyone going? Nick? My dad's going but I can't join him.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 4:46 PM
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So amped for winter meetings. Anyone going? Nick? My dad's going but I can't join him.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 4:25 PM
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Ok, updated 2.0 (http://bit.ly/18sDBgQ). If no one cares about this stuff just tell me and I'll stop posting it and will just update everything in DropBox...
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Frosted Mini Weeks's trade block has been updated!
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But I also tend to trade players that I project downward from their previous year(!!).
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 10:07 AM
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Well, right, that's kind of circular though. Do you project them will because you own them or do you own them because you project them well? I definitely have some players that I would project downward from what they did a year ago (Cliff Lee for example)
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 10:06 AM
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But remember, since they are your players you're going to be the most optimistic. I obviously think Harper hits 40 HR this season...
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I agree Oliver and Steamer are conservative; Zips may be too but isn't up yet. No one but Bill James wants to blow up projections from year to year. I'll add some columns for you to plug in your own stats to add to the mix
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We had this same discussion last year where you were downplaying my chances based on Steamer projections. Then I had like 18 players vastly outperform their Steamer projections.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 9:33 AM
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If Baez had hit 18 HR last year, they would have projected him for 19. Utterly useless.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 9:31 AM
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Sano hit 35 and Baez hit 37 last year, so, again...risk averse. They are plugging players in based more or less exactly on what they've done before.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 9:31 AM
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Sure, but those projections are not "37 HR on the Minnesota Twins." They are just for season-long production, which I think is not unreasonable. Do we really think Sano is going to log 600 MLB PA next year? Zero chance.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 9:28 AM
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The risk-averse Oliver projections have Sano & Baez combining for 70 HR...
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Updated version wil be in league DropBox folder
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That's why I built this spreadsheet - so you can take a look at all the projection systems in one place for your players and come up with a trend. I'll eventually add a place where you can also plug in your own manual projections.
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Who wants Billy Butler?
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 8:58 AM
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This is why I make my own projections.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 8:56 AM
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The problem with Oliver and Steamer is that they are so freaking risk-averse. If you look at Fangraphs player pages, you'll notice that all the rate stats tend to be within .005 points of career averages.
Eckfords ⚾ on
December 7, 2013 8:56 AM
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