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In other words, if your preview shows your team will score 17,000 points, it's certainly possible you could score 17,500 (or 16,500), but if it shows 15,000 points, you probably aren't going to score 18,000...
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It's easy to get too fine and say a certain player will score 50-100 points more than you see here, but the value is really in the macro projected points scored by team when comparing across the league.
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In general, I think B HQ projections do a good job of capturing talent, playing time, and likely upward or downward trends. Using HQ also puts all teams on the same scale rather than my own arbitrary expectations for various players.
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Baseball HQ doesn't project too many rookies with impact playing time this season, so if a guy like Butler comes up early, that's gravy. Some will sure impact more than others, but it's really tough to determine when that will happen.
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3) Very few projection systems project GP, and instead use AB's. To get P/G I had to use a formula to back into GP (3.65 AB/G), but it's very possible P/G could look strange on some players because of this.
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2) I'm unlikely to adjust those HQ projections very much at all for any players, but I did make slight changes to Santos (increased Saves) and Kershaw (backed out about 12 IP) to account for last minute updates.
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A few notes about the projections in the team previews: 1) Almost without exception, the "My Proj" row is populated from Baseball HQ '14 projections. I feel like they do a good job and are one of the few to project Holds.
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WILSON RAMOS hitting 4th! Whoop whoop!!
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Bryce Harper hitting 5th? Derp.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 9:37 AM
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Anyway lots of little nits that are ill-suited to this freaking message board, but thanks for taking the time to write that up. Making this league more analytic/interesting as usual.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:46 AM
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Like if Avisail or Wood struggle, they still have value to me in 2015 or in 2014 as trade bait. If Beltre, Lee, or Ortiz struggle.....they will be absolutely dead weight. And expensive dead weight.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:45 AM
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I think the write-up captured all of the big concerns that I have, the main one being multiple players getting old at once. That is a huge risk.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:43 AM
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Granted I do have a lot of hitters who struggle to play 155 games. Just a philosophical difference of whether or not you want to try and project health. I would tend to steer clear of it.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:42 AM
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My projected team P/G and P/IP seem pretty reasonable, but it feels like a lot of 2014 AB's were subtracted from the equation.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:41 AM
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If Lucroy scores 200 points more than the 669 Trey has him projected for, I'll eat my hat.
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Summary - Jed things he's going to score 20,000 this season.
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15 IP for Butler seems real low to me.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:39 AM
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I get that projections tend to be conservative, but I would say the odds of me rostering zero 1,000-point players are extremely low.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:38 AM
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Brandon Moss playing 35 games less than last season....just not sure where that is coming from. Unless you know that he is nursing a secret ligament tear or something....makes no sense to project massive GP drop-offs.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:38 AM
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Avisail at 3.81 P/G.....will take the over on that.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:37 AM
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The Dozier projection is nothing short of baffling. Bold, I guess, but acting as though the second half of 2013 didn't happen. He was better than Kinsler, Phillips, etc., for most of last year.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:36 AM
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In general, for projections, I feel like you have to pencil hitters in for 150 games and SP for 30 starts. No one can predict injury, even for supposedly injury-prone players.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:35 AM
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I think you're under-projecting my catchers by something like 200-300 points per catcher. P/G seem reasonable but the games played projections seem to be predicting phantom injuries.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:34 AM
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Thanks for getting these team previews rolling, Trey. Some quick knee-jerk reactions (just read it):
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 31, 2014 8:32 AM
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Awesome -8 tonight - really sets the tone for what should be a last place finish
Caimans 🐊 on
March 30, 2014 11:24 PM
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But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come.
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Baseball is back. Enjoy Opening Day/Night. Let the season begin, and thus, the team previews. No one better to start with than our defending champion: http://bit.ly/1lwRhC5
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Pretty sure I traded Pujols for him straight up!
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 30, 2014 3:58 PM
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Got some bad injury news this week, but at least it didn't take long for that Sergio Santos investment to pay off.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 30, 2014 3:57 PM
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Interesting stat of the day: Bobby Aubrey received MVP votes 7 different years despite only being voted an All Star twice. That dude had a nice career.
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I think the Trout deal is aggressive but a win-win....I think the Detroit deal is ridiculous and no way that works out for the team
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Offers for Braun out there before he moves? You know, third shoe and all.
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surpised no chatter on the recent minor contract extensions in Detroit and Anaheim
Caimans 🐊 on
March 29, 2014 3:23 PM
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Everyone has paid now. Thanks guys!
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Perfect Pitch, Inc.'s trade block has been updated!
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Lucky Strikes's trade block has been updated!
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Paid.
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Third shoe might fall soon . . .
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Enrico Palazzo's trade block has been updated!
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Kinsler and Phillips available for 2B/MI help
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Thanks! Got you down as paid now for both leagues, Jed.
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Paid.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 28, 2014 12:50 PM
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Got it, thanks! $25 is correct.
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how much do we pay again? can't remember if 25 or 50. just sent 25, can send another 25 if that wasn't right
Caimans 🐊 on
March 28, 2014 10:29 AM
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I double-checked, but of course, if I'm wrong about anyone, let me know!
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Looks like I'm missing Chiefs, WAR, FMW, Knights. Paypal nate.emmerson@gmail.com or send paper, 920 S Mitchell St, Bloomington, IN 47401
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I haven't. Sorry, who should I send the money to?
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Has everyone paid their league dues?
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Cape Cod, nice. I still have my Chatham A's shirt from back when they were allowed to use MLB team names.
Eckfords ⚾ on
March 27, 2014 6:23 PM
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Durham Tobacconists's trade block has been updated!
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