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So if you "prefer" to lose, that's on you buddy from here on out
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Please don't jinx my acquisitions Roy
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Surplus calc doesn't account for future value, so that's a factor too. For instance, it does seem pretty reasonable to me that entering 2018, a healthy 30 year-old Wilson Ramos could be more valuable than a 35 year-old Russell Martin. So in terms of the catchers, this could easily favor the All Stars this year if Ramos misses a lot of time, but favor Joe Buck going forward.
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Ok, look to the experts at RotoGraphs. They cite Steamer all the time. The Surplus Calc was literally created by an Ottoneu expert. If you want to see the merits of Steamer first hand, look no further than Fake Girlfriends' offseason acquisions. They are all surplus values on the Calc.
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I don't have anything against you. What I do have are "preferences". I could enter our league ID into the surplus value calculator and use the output for players involved in a trade as a guideline, but I "prefer" not to. I also "prefer" to have my criticism and education come from someone with a modicum of demonstrable expertise and accomplishment.
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And if you think I've sucked BECAUSE i use the surplus calc, while you've got it wrong. I never even opened that thing until December
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I think Danny DeVito used Steamer in preparing for his role as the Penguin in Batman Returns.
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So here I am, trying to make a competitive league instead of a lopsided one.
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I almost guarantee you that the better owners in this league use Steamer heavily. And I do speculate that they never really tell you about it because they want to have an advantage over you.
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That's right, I've mostly sucked. You have that against me. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing until maybe late June of last season and I had never even looked a Steamer projection until November. But I've made an effort to learn. I recognize that it's a learning process.
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Roy, I have only one comment regarding your serial diatribe: I take it that your reliance on the use of the surplus calculator is largely responsible for how well you've done since you've been in the league.
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On the calc: Arrieta is worth 22 and Martin is worth 8. Side 1 of that trade is a $30 value for $27. Teheran is worth 6 and Ramos is worth 4. Side 2 is a $10 value for $21. That's pretty damn lopsided. The most trusted projection system is telling you that you're losing $20 in value in order to overpay Teheran by $12.
The values are not the end-all be-all by any means. Don't follow them exactly. Point is, if these values were taken the least bit seriously, this trade would have never gone down.
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I'll admit it, I'm still trying to figure how best that calculator is used. I am still not convinced it's very useful in a league that's designed around leagues like this that don't redraft every year. Just look at players like Edwin Diaz. If you'd drafted him last year and even payed just $1, he would have shown as a negative value. This year at $3 he has a predicted surplus of $20.
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The specific values themselves aren't as important as the values relative to eachother.
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@DeVito I introduced the surplus calc just to try to put us all on the same plane of valuations. You can tell someone their trades are bad over and over again but providing them with a reference point to put them on the same plane of valuations as you deals with the root of the problem.
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The unique and fun thing about fantasy sports is everybody values players differently. I'm guessing Joe Buck is thinking about Julio Teheran's upside in this trade. I can see things his way, but no way he is worth Jake Arrieta. I'd say when Ramos is healthy Russell Martin and Ramos are pretty even, especially after the season Ramos had last year. I also believe prospects are way overvalued in fantasy sports, especially in this format with 40 roster spots. Prospects have little value to me.
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I vetoed this trade, but I believe that doesn't mean that it shouldn't go through. If this trade was made in June after 2 months of the season has been played, and we know how the standings might develop, then this MIGHT be a decent trade. But, to trade away one of the best pitchers in the game and a solid catcher who are both underpriced in salary for a young pitcher who is still inconsistent and a catcher who is going to miss a couple months. It doesn't make sense to me.
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Roy, what is your specific suggested action when it comes to the surplus calculator? I know many players use it, including myself. It can be helpful for establishing a logical reference to both sides, but it's obviously limited to that first step of the trading process. Are you just offering a tip to the league, or are you suggesting something more tangible?
I'm no longer surprised by how other people value players. I'm not sure there's something here that the voting process doesn't solve.
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Instead of further embarrassing Buck or picking a fight about this, I'd like to offer a productive solution. The Ottoneu Surplus Calculator.
If you don't already use it, please check it out. As far as I know, most of the best Ottoneu players use it. The values are based on Steamer projections. Steamer obviously isn't perfect, but it does a better job at predicting the future than anyone's brain.
Here
http://community.ottoneu.com/t/ottoneu-surplus-calculator-2017-version/634
A well kept secret.
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Interesting point Roy. Especially with Arrieta being shopped, I wasn't even approached regarding either of my catchers.
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Again I really hate to do this. Buck said he'd do the trade if the SP involved was Rodon or Manaea instead, and I declined. But it's hard for me to sit here and watch the best asset on his roster (Arrieta at $22) get ripped away for cheap.
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I hate to say this, but this trade makes zero sense to me for Joe Buck. He said he was seeking an upgrade at catcher for a downgrade at SP. But Teheran is $10 overpriced and Ramos will be out a few months. I offered Lucroy and Daniel Norris or Kendall Graveman... and I gotta say, I'm pretty baffled that he went with this. If he's looking to contend now, which I assume was the point he seeked to make a trade, then the downgrades from Arrieta to Teheran and Martin to Ramos don't help.
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Joe Buck Yourself's trade block has been updated!
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Just want to have fun's trade block has been updated!
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LT Cascade's trade block has been updated!
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Danny DeVito's trade block has been updated!
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Clash City Rockers's trade block has been updated!
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LT Cascade's trade block has been updated!
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Fake Girlfriends πππ's trade block has been updated!
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Randall Simon's Bat to the Head's trade block has been updated!
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Clash City Rockers's trade block has been updated!
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I accidentally set my alarm for 8:30pm instead of 8:30am. So it looks like I've got some damage control to do.
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LT Cascade's trade block has been updated!
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Wenny Bear's trade block has been updated!
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Just want to have fun's trade block has been updated!
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Roy Halladay Renaissanceπ 's trade block has been updated!
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Unfortunately I think it's too late to change the starting time, as much as I'd like the extra winks. We've already done so to accommodate as many people as we could, and as Roy said it would cause too much confusion this late in the game. Be safe out there.
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Good luck on the roads, Randall. I think we should just keep the starting time as is so as not to cause confusion and conflict with other people's plans. We have 10 owners committed to the current starting time, and changing the time last-minute could compromise rhat.
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As one of the teams that caused the early start, I have no objection to starting 1.5 to 2 hours later than scheduled (moving to 11 or 11:30 Eastern) if it helps those that are saying they might miss the first part of the auction.
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There is a chance I might not be around for the start of the draft as well. I am an overnight delivery driver for the American Red Cross in the Northern Allegheny Mountains region, and we are supposed to get some more wintry weather tonight. Combine that with the fact tonight is also the St. Patrick's Day celebration, and there will be an increased police presence due to more drunk drivers on the road. I have a gut feeling I'll be working into the morning. If I'm not here, start without me.
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Hey guys, I won't be around for the start of the draft, but well, im down to only rounding out the roster with $1 players. But just so everyone knows from the start. Thanks and good luck all.
Napalm Bombs on
March 17, 2017 3:50 AM
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6 days til auction
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Sorry guys... I had a checklist marking off everyone's approvals and was waiting for one more. Turned out it was me -_- Draft time has been changed. See you all then!
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I forget if I said already, but that time is all good with me
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Yeah that works!
RV Lumberhacks on
February 27, 2017 2:30 PM
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I'm good.
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Fine for me!
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Works for me, thanks.
Napalm Bombs on
February 24, 2017 3:26 AM
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Alright, sounds like everyone is who's chimed in is cool with 9:30 AM ET/6:30 AM PT. There are still 5 teams who haven't weighed in so let's get sign-off before making the change. I wouldn't want to create new conflicts.
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My thanks to all as well.
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