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I think andruw jones lied about his age, he too got old/shitty way fast. His year on the white sox was an embarassment to the game
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With all that's been discussed, I'm still taking the under on .925 OPS for SD Manny and taking the over on SD having made a bad signing.
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Bat, Also, Jr. played 843 games in a Reds uniform... So probably only 400+ games in Cincy... So I mis-stated the 843 number.
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Looks like SD is paying Manny $14 million in 2019 (less than he made in 2018, and not remotely like the best player in the game), so heβs got a year to get used to the new home park before he needs to be good to earn his paycheck.
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Gutboy ? He liked the food in LA apparently.
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Brew, if you want to get NGBβs attention you need to include Andruw on that list.
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Dodgers stadium isnβt actually negative for homers for RH batters
Houck Trea on
February 22, 2019 7:04 PM
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NGB, isnt it possible that park factors matter (though probably not as much as Kloober thinks), but individual home/road splits donβt (or matter a lot less)? (βMatterβ means βreliably tells us something about future production.β) And youβd lose that Jr bet.
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Helton was juicing, like sosa, mcguire, tejada ,got old fast . Walker was great in Montreal and had a cannon arm
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And 140 points of OPS difference
Houck Trea on
February 22, 2019 6:51 PM
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I think youβre constructing a false dichotomy there, NGB, as the answer is almost certainly somewhere between your points of βcompletely irrelevant
Houck Trea on
February 22, 2019 6:51 PM
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Neither Walker nor Helton are HoF.
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Henry, i thought that too..however i think day vs night is a huge factor for all three coastal nl teams
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They moved in the fences a few years back. Since then, Petco is pretty league average as far as park factor goes. Baltimore, weirdly, increases HRs, but nothing else. And Dodger Stadium is bad across the board.
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Although I realize it's somewhat of a moral quandry to equate Rockies players with cheaters.
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Brew, I think if guys who for sure benefited from steroids like Bonds and Clemens are one day viewed as guys who should get into HoF anyway, then I think Rockies players who benefited from the performance enhancing ballpark should also get into HoF anyway.
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And if it is completely irrelevant, then why did Kloobs put him on the market in a NY minute once he signed to play in SD?
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Btw, ngb, do you feel Andres Gallarage should be in HOF ? El Gato Grande ! One of my favorites ever
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When i think of huge Coors benefit to career, immediatly think Vinny Castilla and Ian Stewert
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So, is everyone out there in complete agreement that Manny's career home/road splits are completely irrelevant to guessing what SD may have purchased?
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Bat, Jr. played 843 games in Cincy, wouldn't surprise me if his entire career home/road split came from those games. Also, I don't think I ever said home/road split should keep anyone out of HoF, even though there's a good chance it has kept Larry Walker out and will keep Helton out (if his career number are otherwise good enough).
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SD is paying him as if he's going to be the #1 guy in all of baseball, not just at his position.
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To be a Top-5 OPS 3B Manny will have to put up an OPS of at least .925 (based on last season anyway). Who's taking the over on that, not me. Do you pay $30M/yr for anything less than a Top-5 guy at his position?
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Thatβs it, we need to get Junior out of the HoF! Career home/road split of 118 points of OPSβobviously, he was entirely a creation of the tremendous hitting environment in Seattle! Also, anyone have any idea if past home-road split is actually predictive (outside Denver)? Manny had a big split in 2017 and 2018, not so much in 2016. Was something different then? Or might there be some randomness here?
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Sheffield was as big a tool as Machado. If you recall ,publicly admitting comitting errors on purpose
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I guess another way to look at it, is if Steamer type projections are showing 26-28 HRs for Franmil playing in SD, then Manny's probably good for 30+ and at least an .850 OPS.
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Same dead air at night for all 3 nl california teams
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Brew, Not sure, but I suspect 1992-93 Sheffield played in a different stadium than Manny will play in. Without checking, don't know if that works in favor or against your proposed comparison.
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What cant be measured is whats between the ears. Will he benefit by more laid back crowds and media in SD ? I believe Puig will love being the man and playing in front of packed engaged fans in nl central.
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Sheffield would have been better to cite than Adrian.
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And keep in mind, .825 OPS for Manny in SD might be quite good. His career away OPS in AL is .762.
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No, i wasnt. Just SD as a whole , i didnt differentiate
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Unless, of course, you're suggesting that Manny's oppo power is equivalent to Adrian's pull power?
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And Brew... Adrian was LH hitter, Manny isn't, you're comparing apples to oranges.
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Last season, an .825 OPS at 3B for players with at least 400 PAs would have been 14th best... so in a 30-team mlb, that's solidly middle of the pack.
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What I'm saying is that I think it's within the non-comical realm of possibility that the Padres purchased an .825 OPS 3B for $30M/yr.
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Would you say Story's talent transcends parks? If not, why do you say it for Machado? Both player have the same severe park effect in their OPS.
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It would have been better for fantasy owners of Machado if he ended up on white sox
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His talent does transcend parks and such NGB, if you recall Adrian Gonzalez did rather well there for power and average . However , I think your point is he will be less than Baltimore , while still great, just not super great...right?
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Not sure I'm willing to bet on SD's recent past record on evaluating major free agents.
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NGB, i varied off your point, I was looking at Manny Bal vs, SD, while you were speaking of him Bal vs. away in general
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Also, I'm very curious to see how Manny does in SD, I don't think I know how he's going to do. But I sure do think that before we find out how he does... there definitely seems to be risk there... w/ the caveat that SD's behavior seems to indicate they have reason to believe there either isn't any risk or it's tolerably low.
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So collectively, the average effects for RH hitter for Col, SF, Ari, LAD vs effects of Bos, NYY, Tor, TB....obviously more in play than just parks, quality(collectively) of pitching. Without looking , seems they cancel each other out.
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I'd say Toronto and Boston were pretty good away parks, not to mention Yankee stadium and Manny still couldn't come close to what he was doing in Camden Yards.
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what needs to be considered is 36 games away in division, obviously 9 @ rockies . Will NL west parks as an average play better or worse than AL away parks for RH hitters ? Or negilgible?
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To clarify, GM in mlb, not GM in our league.
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Trevor Story's career home/away split is 121 OPS; about the same as Machado's in Baltimore. No GM in the league ever trades for a Rockies's hitter expecting to get Colorado kind of production, why would it be any different when trading for a Camden Yards hitter?
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His career home/away split as primarily an Oriole is 124 OPS, why does 140 seem comical?
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Hell, I'm the one that overreacts to park effects, but even I don't think there's any rational evidence to believe in a 140 OPS difference. That's comical
Houck Trea on
February 22, 2019 5:20 PM
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Again, I have to assume that SD folks were aware of these numbers, so I also have to assume they had more sophisticated analytics that suggested to them they were getting more than an .825 OPS 3B... which I suspect would be middle of the pack for 3Bs?
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