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The Barves Way™ (DUF)'s trade block has been updated!
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Yes, but in real baseball life, that would be a terrible idea. That's mostly my point.
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In the initial draft, I spent more on relievers and drafted more relievers than anyone else, I believe. I have the best pitching on a per inning basis. These are related.
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I see my relief corps doing well this season as about the least random thing that has happened this fantasy season. I don't think there was much question at all they would do great. So I'm not seeing that part of things. Sure, once you get past the best 30 or 40, you're taking fliers, but that's just baseball.
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Couple of things: 1) no need for blown hold, since a blown hold is already a blown save by default. 2) you could make it like -5 and not -10. Doesn't really matter, just some parallelism. SPs don't get points for WPA or QS or Ws (and they shouldn't), why do relievers get points for game-state-specific stats? And yes, you hit the nail on the head -- I don't really see picking which reliever might randomly do well as compelling gameplay, so I think making them bad is fine.
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Relievers CAN accrue negative value, and quite a bit of it, usually by giving up multiple homers. Most of them don't get the opportunity to give up multiple homers, but it happens. And I've always thought saves and holds are there as a way to separate the best relievers from the guys who luck into 5 months of K/BB magic in low leverage situations. It places a bit of trust in the real life teams that they're going to use their best relievers in save/hold situations. That doesn't always happen.
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So what if we removed points for saves and holds altogether? Is it still true that they have little value? To me, the issue is that other than the top few guys (maybe few is 10+, but still) relievers DON'T have any value. Adding arbitrary value for bad relievers on teams that don't have anyone else to close doesn't seem to be the answer.
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Little downside? And what's usually the downside of putting in a SS or 1B? It's not like negative points are going to happen commonly at any position. The downside is that you may or may not have worse relievers than the other teams. Allowing them to have fewer but higher quality innings makes them a necessary component of every team so they don't get ignored.
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Well, people would still draft them because having a couple of stud relievers could give them a couple hundred point edge that they need to win. I do agree that there has to be some way for relievers to accrue negative points. So many teams only require their relievers to not give up home runs that they can accrue massive amounts of points with little downside.
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Wouldn't that just make relievers bad? Why would anyone draft relievers if they averaged basically the same P/IP as starters, but for way fewer innings? -10 is devastating.
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Yeah, that would make sense. And I don't know if they keep track of "blown holds" but maybe that would also be a negative, just not quite as much as a blown save.
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Apropos of nothing, but it occurred to me that rather than trying to substantially alter the scoring format to adjust for reliever value in various ways, they could just make blown saves be like -10ish points and it'd probably balance a bit.
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Bartender_JobuNeedsARefill's trade block has been updated!
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Really, most fantasy leagues (and baseball seasons) are kind of/more or less decided by injuries anyway.
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Yeah, injuries suck. But with such big rosters, virtually everyone is going to get hit at some point with an important injury. It's one thing to lose "injury prone" guys because you kinda know going in that rostering that player comes with risk. But it really sucks when a super durable and dependable guy goes down. A couple years ago, I had MadBum for like $52 and that's when he was hurt basically all year, and it's tough to recover from losing a player that you expect to carry you.
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Losing Severino and Stanton have really hurt me in points; especially Severino who I was really counting on to carry my SP group. I imagine every team will be hit by the IL bug eventually, so hopefully the impacts to everyone balance out over the course of an entire season.
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Those injuries are showing up in the standings in a big way. I'm middle of the pack in position player production, and third in pitching on a rate basis. And yet I'm 9th in points and way back. I just can't seem to get the games I need with all these injured players. Who knows? Maybe I can catch up when I get them back.
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I see you, whoever filtered relievers by xFIP and is trying to add them
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Snitker Sets My Lineups's trade block has been updated!
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Can I sign some of my young players to 9 year, $45 contracts please?
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I think that's the way to go, especially for pitchers in the Mike Leake area of quality. There are a few guys you start every time through, but not many. I have deGrom in my other league, and you'd think starting him against the Twins at Citi Field would be gravy. And then he gives up 3 homers and some big negative numbers because of course.
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At least one of my own guys hit one of those three homers. So irritating. Leake has a below-average HR rate, the Royals hit the fifth-fewest homers in baseball last year (third-fewest in AL), and only had nine coming into today, which they added a third of. It was a tactical decision that went very, very wrong. I'm basically the point where I'm only going to start guys against bad teams in favorable parks.
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Damn, he almost pulled off the Khris Davis. And yeah, the variance is random, but no more random than start/sit decisions in any other format or fantasy sport, really. The value of home runs hit (and home run suppression) is pretty well in line with their value in an actual game of baseball (queue the Ivan "hit more home runs" meme from last year).
41/73 Club on
April 11, 2019 3:40 PM
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Well, homers are also fielding independent. And Teheran had one 1000+ point season, then a couple in the 750-850 range, which seems about right. The biggest difference is that he went 221 IP in his 1k point season while still only giving up the same number of homers he did in his 180-200 IP seasons. Fun fact: Julio gave up exactly 22 homers 3 out of 4 years between 2013-2016.
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I would prefer this format. Seems like what should be done is a recalculation of linear weights with defense and a portion of baserunning value removed from the total, but in terms of existing fantasy games this is probably the best I’ve come across.
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Part of my issue with the format is that even in a guy like Teheran's best year, he would've been pretty bad in this format. It seems so odd that only for Homers do actual results matter, but for every other type of play, the system is using FIP.
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Mike Leake is doing exactly what we've all been talking about. Him giving up 3 homers isn't simply the randomness of baseball. Baseball will probably give Leake a whole season to pitch. Will Ivan? No, probably not. Ivan might have pulled Leake out in the third inning if he could. Will Leake's actual manager? No. We're victims (or beneficiaries) of more randomness than just a season of baseball for a GM. Also sorry, Ivan. That's brutal.
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I like this scoring system more, honestly. The homers/FIP thing is quirky but it's way better than me having to mentally think about a team's defense when buying a pitcher.
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J.D. Power and Associates's trade block has been updated!
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At least we're all being held to the same standard! And I had no idea going in that the homer thing would be swinging scores the way it has, so if I've benefited from it so far, I promise it wasn't on purpose!
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I don't think I would prefer switching next year. Making a brand new league would be preferable to me, though I'm not saying we should do that either.
Murphy’s Slow on
April 11, 2019 12:50 PM
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It looks like relievers also score more too, though. Josh Hader has been worth 86 points so far in linear weights, versus 102 in FG Points. But he also hasn't given up a homer. For a reliever like Jeurys Familia, who has given up two homers, the difference is pretty tiny. 1.50 P/IP here, 1.53 P/IP in the other.
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Would you guys prefer switching to the Fangraphs Points format in following seasons? It's basically the same except hits also count against pitchers, so there's at least some influence of fielding. My other league is FG Points, and I have Ross Stripling in both leagues. He's been good for 3.38 P/IP in this league, 3.72 P/IP in FG points. Jack Flaherty's start last night in this league was worth 30 points, in FG Points it was 37.3.
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Again, it's not so much that FIP is predictive (it's more predictive than ERA but it's not meant to be a predictive stat), it's that basically FIP only cares about a limited set of things on the assumption that other things in the game are covered by fielders. But since we don't pick fielders here, it's kind of weird because your team is gaining/losing points on avoiding/allowing homers, but it's not gaining/losing any points for plays made behind pitchers.
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I guess this is a bit of a struggle with me in FIP based scoring, a pitcher can get hit hard all game but as long as he doesn't walk guys and balls bounce off the wall or the track instead of over it he can throw 5IP with 3K and have a 30 point game. Meanwhile another guy could throw an exceptional 6IP, give up a solo HR on a good pitch like Acuna hit the other night and have the same score. The first team is probably in a hole but the second is probably winning. FIP seems more predictive.
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Maybe one day! If Statcast data turns out to be usable and available enough to be somewhat reliable to the point that you could add defense to fantasy baseball in a tidy way, that would be sweet. I'd guess Ottoneu would be the earliest adopter.
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And to be clear, yeah, it's linear-weights-based, except linear weights includes a holistic system where defense also matters, and this doesn't. That's the missing component!
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The real solution (and the way actual baseball deals with this) is to add value for defense. The reason why it's so frustrating is because right now, the only way to really counterbalance your pitcher allowing a homer is for your guys to hit homers. But if you had team defense in the mix, then pitchers allowing homers doesn't negatively impact half of your points, but closer to a third.
But of course scoring team defense in this format would be a nightmare. Fractional UZR/DRS points!
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Yeah, the variance is why we did Ottoneu and not like, ESPN or Rotisserie-style. I found myself cheering against the umps overturning a Jose Altuve home run (they called it a double live) because he was going against James Paxton.
41/73 Club on
April 11, 2019 11:23 AM
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Yeah, I could see that being frustrating. But still, starting a good SP against the Marlins and getting poor results doesn't make it a bad decision. And vice versa for a pitcher at Coors. I think that's kind of part of the draw, right? It's a baseball simulation and weird shit happens in baseball.
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I think what we're saying is that the player who gets 800 points in 200 innings doesn't get exactly 4 points every single inning. Some innings you would use from such a player, and other innings (at Coors, or against Phillies, etc) you would not, because you expect their innings to vary. But any given day you use them (say, @ Marlins) might be a day they randomly give up 2 homers, and any given day you don't use them (@ Coors) they might randomly give up 0 homers. That's most of what matters.
Murphy’s Slow on
April 11, 2019 10:49 AM
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But that's the thing, the scoring is based on linear weights, so it's not like the format is just making up how important/valuable each action is. It's definitely frustrating (I didn't start him because Dodgers, but I had Jack Flaherty go 6IP, 8K, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 1HR and that's only good for 30 points). But 30 points a start is pretty good! Over 33 starts (which very few pitchers actually get these days), that's nearly 1000 points, which is kind of the benchmark of a really good ottoneu season.
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This is why I would push for a 1600+ innings limit. (Or being restricted to 3-4 relievers instead of 5) Home runs really do kill a pitcher's FIP, but that randomness is dealt with over the course of a whole season. If everyone actually had to use their starters all season, it would balance out in the long run. But I can just take out my starters when I feel they're more likely to give up a home run, and then roll the dice on half their innings or less. That ends up feeling more random.
Murphy’s Slow on
April 11, 2019 10:28 AM
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First, it's really helpful to be able to participate in the draft because in a league this deep there is little left on the scrap heap. Beyond that, the negative effects of a HR on a pitcher seem a bit much comparatively. I'd rather give up one HR than the four walks that are equivalent generally speaking. It takes 7 K's to balance out one HR. Lyles last night threw 6IP, 3 hits, 1 BB, 1 ER (HR), 10 K for 34 points. Cahill two starts ago went 6IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 5 K for 40 points.
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There were a few things I knew I wouldn’t like from the beginning (holds/saves for relievers, mostly). Main thing I’m regretting is not taking the time to prepare adequately for the draft. I’ll definitely have my $/pt model built for the redraft.
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I formerly had Jose Martinez in my other league. Someone offered me Touki for him, so I just went ahead and took it because the Cardinals just don't seem to want to get his bat in the lineup. Even tougher now that Goldy is there and they can't just tell him to stand around the first base area anymore.
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If Mike Trout keeps up his current pace, no complaints here!
41/73 Club on
April 10, 2019 3:41 PM
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I'm running a team in the other TC league that has both Camargoat at Martinez on it. Brutal. At least the Dodgers have figured out that Verdugo is good and the Mets love Alonso.
Fortunately I also have Josh Hader and Greg Holland saving me from reliever hell in that league. I did pretty much the same thing, but so many of my guys got hurt early on (Knebel's TJ killed me) that I cut most of them.
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I'm about ready to cut Jose Martinez due to lineup decisions. Ivan's probably fed up with Snit over Camargoat.
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I will say my draft algorithm loved relievers, so it was entirely possible to spot if you just assessed the scoring rules properly. I drafted 9 top relievers, after which I traded one. Still have Alvarado, Doolittle, Treinen, Ottavino, Chapman, Jeffress (IL), Smith, and Giles. It's the only reason I'm in the competition right now, and it cost a total of $67 for those 8.
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